> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.coios.me/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# Alzheimer's disease model links slower cognitive decline to later institutionalisation
- URL: https://www.coios.me/alzheimer-s-disease-model-links-slower-cognitive-decline-to/
- Published: 2026-10-26T23:33:45.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-27T00:08:45.000Z
- Description: In a memory clinic microsimulation, 30% slower MMSE decline delayed institutional care by 1.1 years, with similar time spent there.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Data, models and systems, Forecasts and their record, Dementia, #peer-reviewed, #new, #item, #source-2026-10, #score-75

Researchers built an Alzheimer's disease microsimulation model from an amyloid-positive memory clinic population to extrapolate amyloid-targeting therapy trials. Stages were MCI, community dementia, institutionalisation and death, with transitions tied to Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores through joint models. Predicted and observed cumulative incidence curves overlapped, and an untreated cohort starting with MCI lived 10.0 years in total. A 30% slowing of MMSE decline lengthened MCI by 0.4 years and mild dementia by 1.0 years. It delayed institutionalisation by 1.1 years, while time spent institutionalised stayed similar. The 30% slowing, applied only during MCI and mild dementia, was an assumed scenario.

*Why it is interesting: Trials of amyloid-targeting therapies showed slower cognitive and functional decline over eighteen months. This model converts slower cognitive decline into years per functional stage, for assessing cost-effectiveness, the authors say.*

Source

[European Journal of Epidemiology, 26 October 2026](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-026-01470-7?ref=coios.me)

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Microsimulation model of Alzheimer's disease states (MCI, community dementia, institutionalisation, death) using joint models of MMSE with transition hazards, developed in an amyloid-positive memory clinic cohort, with internal validation against observed cumulative incidence; 18-month trial effect sizes extrapolated

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Forecasts and their record](https://www.coios.me/d-forecasting/)

Driver

[Dementia](https://www.coios.me/d-dementia/)