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# Drought-attributable excess mortality in Somalia, 2015-2024: a small-area modelling study
- URL: https://www.coios.me/drought-attributable-excess-mortality-in-somalia-2015-2024/
- Published: 2026-10-18T11:15:28.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-18T12:15:58.000Z
- Description: Modelling estimated 71,100 excess deaths in Somalia during the 2022-2024 drought, 91% of them children under 5.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Tomorrow's world, A changing climate, Revisions and new sources, Somalia, #peer-reviewed, #new, #item, #source-2026-10, #score-55

The study estimated all-age and under-5 excess mortality by district and month across Somalia, 2015 to June 2024\. Ground data came from 496 SMART household surveys, with reconstructed population denominators and district-month predictors. Predictors included a composite drought index, malnutrition admissions, and suspected measles and malaria incidence. Against a 2015-2016 counterfactual, 71,100 excess deaths occurred from January 2022 to June 2024 (95% CI 28,200-125,100). Of these 64,500 were under 5; the 2017-2019 drought gave 79,600 excess deaths, 61% under 5\. Survey clusters systematically omitted densely populated parts of southern and central Somalia.

*Why it is interesting: It shows how excess mortality can be estimated by district and month where no vital registration exists. The method is reproducible and applies to other crisis settings.*

Source

[The Lancet Regional Health - Africa, 17 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanafr.2026.100072?ref=coios.me)

Paper

Drought-attributable mortality in Somalia, 2015–2024: a retrospective and modelling study

Authors

Ouchtar Y, Ali DA, Ahmed YA, Adam MH, Dirie NI, Warsame A et al.

DOI

10.1016/j.lanafr.2026.100072

Full text

[Open copy](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13672283/?ref=coios.me) (open-access copy, PubMed Central)

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Retrospective small-area modelling of excess mortality, Somalia 2015-2024, district-month resolution, from reanalysed household mortality surveys with reconstructed census/displacement denominators and two counterfactual scenarios

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[A changing climate](https://www.coios.me/d-climate/)

Driver

[Revisions and new sources](https://www.coios.me/d-data-sources/)