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# Excess deaths in 2020-2023 were partly offset by death deficits in 2024-2025
- URL: https://www.coios.me/excess-deaths-in-2020-2023-were-partly-offset-by-death/
- Published: 2026-09-28T06:38:28.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-28T07:06:29.000Z
- Description: Across 38 populations with reliable death registration, cumulative 2020-2025 excess deaths were estimated at 0.92-2.49 million, with 33 of 38 countries showing death deficits in 2024-2025 that partly offset the 1.99-2.88 million excess of 2020-2023.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Weighing data and models, Forecasts and their record, Infection and pandemics, Luxembourg, Ireland, Sweden, New Zealand, Chile, Bulgaria, Japan, Greece, Slovakia, Italy, #preprint, #refines, #item, #source-2026-09

The study estimated excess deaths for 2020-2025 in 38 populations using four baselines: a 2017-2019 mean and three models incorporating long-term mortality rate trends and trend-of-trends since 2003\. Cumulative 2020-2025 excess was 0.92-2.49 million, comprising 1.99-2.88 million in 2020-2023 and a deficit of 0.39-1.08 million in 2024-2025, with 33 of 38 countries in deficit in the latter period. Baselines lacking age stratification or assuming unchanged linear trends produced substantially higher excess estimates.

*Why it is interesting: It quantifies how much of the published excess-death record is an artefact of baseline choice, and shows the sign of the estimate reverses in the post-pandemic years.*

Source

[medRxiv, 26 September 2026](https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.08.14.26360482?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.64898/2026.08.14.26360482

Type

Preprint

Design

Multi-population excess mortality estimation, 38 countries with reliable death registration, 2020-2025, four baseline models with age stratification

Verdict

Refines prior evidence

Driver

[Forecasts and their record](https://www.coios.me/d-forecasting/)

Driver

[Infection and pandemics](https://www.coios.me/d-infectious-disease/)