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# GBD forecasts global life expectancy reaching 78.1 years by 2050, up 4.5 years
- URL: https://www.coios.me/gbd-forecasts-global-life-expectancy-reaching-78-1-years-by/
- Published: 2026-09-14T18:00:04.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-14T18:19:39.000Z
- Description: The Global Burden of Disease 2021 forecasting analysis projects global life expectancy rising from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050, with the largest gains in the lowest-income super-regions, alongside alternative scenarios in which selected risk factors are eliminated by 2050.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Power of data, Measuring and projecting life expectancy, World, #peer-reviewed, #new, #item

GBD 2021 extends its cause-specific modelling forward to 2050 for 204 countries, forecasting mortality, YLLs, YLDs and DALYs by age and sex from the Socio-demographic Index and the full set of causal risk exposures, with all-cause forecasts cascading down the cause hierarchy. The reference forecast has global life expectancy at 78.1 years in 2050 against 73.6 in 2022, with convergence between super-regions and a continuing shift from communicable to non-communicable causes. Alternative scenarios replace reference risk trajectories with gradual elimination of environmental, metabolic and behavioural risks from current levels.

*Why it is interesting: The most widely cited public forecast of cause-specific mortality to 2050, and a documented method whose structure and track record can be examined against national projections.*

Source

[The Lancet, 2024-05-01](https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736%2824%2900685-8?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00685-8

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Cause-specific forecasting analysis, 204 countries and territories, reference plus risk-elimination scenarios, 2022–2050 (GBD 2021)

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Measuring and projecting life expectancy](https://www.coios.me/d-life-expectancy/)