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# Health opportunity cost estimates updated for 92 low- and middle-income countries
- URL: https://www.coios.me/health-opportunity-cost-estimates-updated-for-92-low-and/
- Published: 2026-10-17T09:19:24.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-17T09:43:24.000Z
- Description: The marginal cost per DALY averted ranges from about $54 to $18,547 across 92 low- and middle-income countries.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Data, models and systems, Health systems and access, Revisions and new sources, Value in health, World, #preprint, #refines, #item, #source-2026-10, #score-86

The study re-estimates the marginal cost per DALY averted from government health expenditure in 92 low- and middle-income countries. Elasticities from Ochalek et al. (2018) were applied to recent mortality, morbidity, population and expenditure data, not re-estimated. Estimates ranged from about $54 to $18,547 per DALY averted, higher than Ochalek et al. (2018) in 68% of countries. Raising government health spending to a tiered minimum of 10% or 15% would avert 145 million DALYs, costing $392 billion. Reallocating $11.2 billion of on-budget development assistance by country-specific opportunity cost would avert 75.3 million DALYs, against 45.3 million now. Allocating the $25.7 billion off-budget, NGO and philanthropic envelope would avert 66.1 million more, from a baseline of none.

*Why it is interesting: Earlier versions of these estimates informed priority setting in several countries and international policy discussions. The reallocation scenarios put a figure on what current donor allocation may forgo.*

Source

[medRxiv, 15 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.03.31.26349880?ref=coios.me)

Paper

Updated Health Opportunity Cost Estimates for 92 Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Implications for Global Health Financing and Donor Allocation

Authors

Ochalek JM

DOI

10.64898/2026.03.31.26349880

Type

Preprint

Design

Economic modelling study applying previously estimated expenditure–outcome elasticities (Ochalek et al. 2018) to recent mortality, morbidity, population and government health expenditure data for 92 low- and middle-income countries, with two allocation scenarios

Verdict

Refines prior evidence

Driver

[Health systems and access](https://www.coios.me/d-health-systems/)

Driver

[Revisions and new sources](https://www.coios.me/d-data-sources/)

Driver

[Value in health](https://www.coios.me/d-health-economics/)