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# Heat-attributable mortality in Spain rose 15% per 1 °C of mean heatwave daily Tmax
- URL: https://www.coios.me/heat-attributable-mortality-in-spain-rose-15-per-1-c-of/
- Published: 2026-10-23T13:27:09.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-24T06:06:03.000Z
- Description: Event-level heat metrics explained much of the variability in heatwave mortality, while heat-attributable deaths fell 3.9-5.8% a year after adjusting for temperature.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Tomorrow's world, A changing climate, Forecasts and their record, Spain, #peer-reviewed, #refines, #item, #source-2026-10, #score-87

Analysis of heat and mortality in Spain, 2015-2024, used high-resolution mortality surveillance and meteorological data. Multiple heat metrics were evaluated at different spatial scales during heatwaves. Extreme temperature and cumulative exposure explained most of the variability in heatwave mortality. Heat-attributable mortality rose 15% (95% CI 6.7-24.3%) nationally per 1 °C of mean heatwave daily maximum temperature. At provincial level the increase was 24% (95% CI 15.3-33.4%); heat-attributable deaths fell 3.9-5.8% annually after temperature adjustment. Forecasts substantially overestimated the exceptional heatwaves of 2025, the main limitation.

*Why it is interesting: Quantifies the mortality gradient per degree of heatwave temperature and shows heat-attributable deaths falling year on year. The fitted models were tested against the exceptional 2025 season.*

Source

[Environment International, 22 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2026.110561?ref=coios.me)

Paper

Mortality during heatwaves in Spain, 2015-2025: heat metrics, patterns and future risks

Authors

García-García D, León-Gómez I, Pérez-Marín L, Gómez-Barroso D

DOI

10.1016/j.envint.2026.110561

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

National heat-mortality analysis using daily mortality surveillance and meteorological data, Spain, 2015-2024, with event-level heat metrics at national and provincial scale and comparison against 2025 forecasts

Verdict

Refines prior evidence

Driver

[A changing climate](https://www.coios.me/d-climate/)

Driver

[Forecasts and their record](https://www.coios.me/d-forecasting/)

Free full text

[Free to read at the publisher](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2026.110561?ref=coios.me)