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# Illicit cigarettes rose from 8.5% to 20.4% of packs in eight Mexican cities by 2023
- URL: https://www.coios.me/illicit-cigarettes-rose-from-8-5-to-20-4-of-packs-in-eight/
- Published: 2026-09-20T09:35:49.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-20T09:35:49.000Z
- Description: A follow-up collection of 12,607 discarded cigarette packs in 11 Mexican cities put the illicit share at 18.2% in 2023, and in the eight cities surveyed in both years it rose from 8.5% in 2017 to 20.4%, with city-level estimates ranging from under 1% to 43.4%.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Behavioural science, Smoking and vaping, Mexico, #peer-reviewed, #refines, #item, #source-2026-09

Researchers collected 12,607 discarded cigarette packs from 126 randomly selected basic geostatistical areas across 11 Mexican cities in early 2023 and classified them by packaging compliance, brand legality and presence of the tax code. The illicit share was 18.2% overall, and among the eight cities also surveyed in 2017 it rose from 8.5% to 20.4% (p<0.001). City-level estimates ranged from below 1% to 43.4%, with divergent trajectories across cities.

*Why it is interesting: One of the few longitudinal measures of illicit cigarette supply in a middle-income country, bearing on how far tax-based tobacco control is offset by the untaxed market.*

Source

[Tobacco Control, 18 September 2026](https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2026-060107?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.1136/tc-2026-060107

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Repeated cross-sectional discarded-pack collection, 12,607 packs, 126 sampling areas, 11 cities, 2023 vs 2017

Verdict

Refines prior evidence

Driver

[Smoking and vaping](https://www.coios.me/d-smoking-vaping/)