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# Modelled excess maternal deaths of 68,489 in 2020-2023, with a wide uncertainty interval
- URL: https://www.coios.me/modelled-excess-maternal-deaths-of-68-489-in-2020-2023-with/
- Published: 2026-09-30T06:55:06.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-30T07:55:07.000Z
- Description: Counterfactual models fitted to WHO/UN maternal mortality estimates for 2000-2019 put cumulative excess maternal deaths across 195 countries at 68,489 (95% UI 34,706-147,118) for 2020-2023, with no clear association with national service-disruption measures.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Weighing data and models, Revisions and new sources, Infection and pandemics, World, #preprint, #refines, #item, #source-2026-09

The authors projected pre-pandemic maternal mortality trajectories for 195 countries from WHO/UN MMEIG estimates for 2000-2019 and compared them with estimates for 2020-2023\. Cumulative excess maternal deaths were 68,489 (95% UI 34,706-147,118), with detectable excess in 113 countries and the largest burdens in South-East Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean and Africa. In a self-selected subset of 39 countries, disruption to antenatal care, facility delivery and postnatal care was not clearly associated with the deviation in maternal mortality ratio.

*Why it is interesting: Puts a figure on the departure of maternal deaths from pre-pandemic trajectories, and sets it against national service-disruption indicators that did not clearly explain it.*

Source

[medRxiv, 28 September 2026](https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.06.30.26356947?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.64898/2026.06.30.26356947

Type

Preprint

Design

Counterfactual modelling of WHO/UN MMEIG maternal mortality estimates, 195 countries, 2000-2019 fitted and projected to 2020-2023; regression on service disruption in 39 countries (63 country-years)

Verdict

Refines prior evidence

Driver

[Revisions and new sources](https://www.coios.me/d-data-sources/)

Driver

[Infection and pandemics](https://www.coios.me/d-infectious-disease/)