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# Modelled hepatitis C prevalence ranged from 0.74% to 2.22% across US states in 2017-2020
- URL: https://www.coios.me/modelled-hepatitis-c-prevalence-ranged-from-0-74-to-2-22/
- Published: 2026-10-06T12:45:09.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-06T17:12:09.000Z
- Description: A Bayesian spatial model integrating surveillance, death, claims and Medicaid data estimated hepatitis C prevalence at 1.32% of adults across 48 US states and DC in 2017-2020, with state estimates ranging from 0.74% in North Dakota to 2.22% in Oklahoma.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Tomorrow's world, Infection and pandemics, Revisions and new sources, United States, #preprint, #new, #item, #source-2026-10

The authors adapted a Bayesian spatial integrated abundance model to estimate adult hepatitis C virus prevalence in 48 US states and the District of Columbia for 2017-2020, combining acute and chronic surveillance cases, HCV-related deaths, MarketScan claims, Medicaid diagnoses and Medicaid direct-acting antiviral treatment, anchored to a national estimate. Average prevalence was 1.32% (95% CrI 0.94-1.80%), or 3.33 million adults, ranging from 0.74% in North Dakota to 2.22% in Oklahoma. Ten states accounted for 56% of estimated infections, with higher prevalence in South Central states, Appalachia and the West.

*Why it is interesting: It shows how far an unobserved disease burden can be reconstructed from mismatched administrative sources, and gives a 2017-2020 state-level baseline.*

Source

[medRxiv, 5 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.29.26364309?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.64898/2026.09.29.26364309

Type

Preprint

Design

Bayesian spatial integrated abundance model combining six surveillance, claims and Medicaid data sources, 48 states and DC, 2017-2020

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Infection and pandemics](https://www.coios.me/d-infectious-disease/)

Driver

[Revisions and new sources](https://www.coios.me/d-data-sources/)