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# Modelled measles scale-up in Kenya averts 879 deaths over ten years
- URL: https://www.coios.me/modelled-measles-scale-up-in-kenya-averts-879-deaths-over/
- Published: 2026-09-23T12:40:03.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-23T21:35:14.000Z
- Description: A Markov model of measles vaccination in Kenya estimated that maintaining current funding would avert 213 deaths over ten years at $1,269 per DALY averted, while reaching 95% two-dose coverage would avert 879 deaths at $1,093 per DALY averted, at a very high cost to the health budget.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Power of data, Forecasts and their track record, Infectious disease and pandemics, Capacity, funding and care, Kenya, #peer-reviewed, #confirms, #item, #source-2026-09

A Markov model taking a health system perspective compared two measles vaccination scenarios in Kenya against a base case over ten years, adding a new birth cohort each year. Maintaining current funding, with annual coverage gains of 0.3% and 2% for first and second dose plus supplementary campaigns, was estimated to avert 213 deaths at $1,269 per DALY averted, while reaching 95% coverage for both doses averted 879 deaths at $1,093 per DALY averted. The intensified scenario was assessed as having a very high budget impact relative to Kenyan health expenditure.

*Why it is interesting: It sets the modelled mortality gain from closing measles coverage gaps against what it would take from a national health budget.*

Source

[PLOS Global Public Health, 22 September 2026](https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0006440?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.1371/journal.pgph.0006440

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Markov cost-effectiveness and budget-impact model, health-system perspective, annual birth cohorts, 10-year horizon, Kenya

Verdict

Confirms prior evidence

Driver

[Forecasts and their track record](https://www.coios.me/d-forecasting/)

Driver

[Infectious disease and pandemics](https://www.coios.me/d-infectious-disease/)

Driver

[Capacity, funding and care](https://www.coios.me/d-capacity-funding/)