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# Modelled pandemic costs rise far more from under-control than from over-control
- URL: https://www.coios.me/modelled-pandemic-costs-rise-far-more-from-under-control/
- Published: 2026-10-06T13:10:05.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-06T17:08:06.000Z
- Description: In transmission models fitted to first-year COVID-19 cases in 110 countries, cost-optimal average transmission reduction ranged from 31.2% to 57.3%, and a shortfall of five percentage points was associated with excess costs above 400%, against 10-80% for the same margin above the optimum.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Tomorrow's world, Infection and pandemics, Health funding and inequalities, Value in health, World, #preprint, #new, #item, #source-2026-10

Mechanistic transmission models were fitted to the first year of reported COVID-19 cases in 110 countries and combined with GDP-scaled intervention costs and infection costs covering quarantine and mortality, to find the transmission reduction that minimised total cost over 26, 40 and 52 weeks. Cost-optimal average transmission reduction ranged from 31.2% to 57.3%, with a mean excess-cost ratio of 55.2% (median 30.8%). Excess costs were asymmetric around the optimum, exceeding 400% for five percentage points below it against 10-80% for the same margin above it, under the modelled assumptions and in a preprint that is not yet peer reviewed.

*Why it is interesting: It puts a cost shape, rather than a single target, on early pandemic intervention intensity, and tests how far national indices such as SDI and GDP per capita track country-specific optima.*

Source

[medRxiv, 5 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.10.02.26363193?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.64898/2026.10.02.26363193

Type

Preprint

Design

Mechanistic transmission models fitted to first-year COVID-19 cases in 110 countries, with multi-objective cost optimisation over 26-, 40- and 52-week horizons

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Infection and pandemics](https://www.coios.me/d-infectious-disease/)

Driver

[Health funding and inequalities](https://www.coios.me/d-health-inequality/)

Driver

[Value in health](https://www.coios.me/d-health-economics/)