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# Modelled VPM1002 effectiveness in India is 42.9% extrapulmonary and 14.0% pulmonary
- URL: https://www.coios.me/modelled-vpm1002-effectiveness-in-india-is-42-9/
- Published: 2026-10-04T06:40:40.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-04T07:35:40.000Z
- Description: A 1,152-compartment model of tuberculosis in India, resolving pulmonary and extrapulmonary disease separately, estimated that three doses of VPM1002 per million targeted would avert 682 deaths and 9,463 DALYs under 10-year protection, at US$329 per DALY averted.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Weighing data and models, Value in health, Infection and pandemics, India, #preprint, #new, #item, #source-2026-10

The authors built a 1,152-compartment dynamic model of Indian tuberculosis stratified by age, HIV status, body-mass index and socioeconomic status, calibrated to WHO incidence and mortality for 2015 to 2024, and propagated separate pulmonary and extrapulmonary effectiveness posteriors derived from the VPM1002 Phase III trial. Posterior median effectiveness was 42.9% against extrapulmonary disease (95% CrI -5.6 to 69.1) against 14.0% for pulmonary, and three doses per million targeted averted 682 deaths (24 to 1,255) and 9,463 DALYs under 10-year protection. The gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$329 per DALY averted, rising to US$832 if protection lasts three years.

*Why it is interesting: The trial missed its primary composite endpoint, and the model resolves a stronger extrapulmonary signal whose credible interval still includes no effect.*

Source

[medRxiv, 2 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.07.31.26359434?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.64898/2026.07.31.26359434

Type

Preprint

Design

Deterministic dynamic transmission model, 1,152 compartments, calibrated to WHO India data 2015-2024, 1,000 Monte Carlo iterations

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Value in health](https://www.coios.me/d-health-economics/)

Driver

[Infection and pandemics](https://www.coios.me/d-infectious-disease/)