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# Nigeria's adolescent HPV programme is modelled to avert 1.82m cervical cancers by 2100
- URL: https://www.coios.me/nigeria-s-adolescent-hpv-programme-is-modelled-to-avert-1/
- Published: 2026-10-04T06:40:50.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-04T07:35:50.000Z
- Description: An agent-based microsimulation calibrated to Nigeria projects that continuing single-dose adolescent HPV vaccination averts 1.82 million cervical cancer cases over 2025 to 2100, a 53% reduction, while 945,000 residual cases fall in women already beyond target age.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Weighing data and models, Forecasts and their record, Cancer, Infection and pandemics, Nigeria, #preprint, #new, #item, #source-2026-10

Researchers used HPVsim, an agent-based microsimulation calibrated to Nigerian sexual behaviour, HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence, to project cervical cancer cases to 2100 under adolescent, scaled-up and hypothetical infant vaccine delivery, varying screening coverage and schooling-linked equity assumptions. Continuing the current adolescent programme was projected to avert 1.82 million cases (IQR 1.65 to 1.90 million), a 53% reduction, with age-standardised incidence falling from 19.7 to 7.8 per 100,000\. Some 945,000 residual cases fall in women already beyond target age, with screening scale-up to 70% averting a further 387,000.

*Why it is interesting: The projection separates cases the programme averts from those in cohorts beyond target age, and sets out the coverage an infant schedule would need to match adolescent delivery.*

Source

[medRxiv, 2 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.30.26364434?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.64898/2026.09.30.26364434

Type

Preprint

Design

Agent-based HPV microsimulation (HPVsim) calibrated to Nigeria, 50 replicates per scenario, projections 2025-2100

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Forecasts and their record](https://www.coios.me/d-forecasting/)

Driver

[Cancer](https://www.coios.me/d-cancer/)

Driver

[Infection and pandemics](https://www.coios.me/d-infectious-disease/)