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# Parkinson's disease mortality in the US was flat from 1999 to 2025
- URL: https://www.coios.me/parkinson-s-disease-mortality-in-the-us-was-flat-from-1999/
- Published: 2026-10-18T11:22:16.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-18T12:15:58.000Z
- Description: Age-adjusted Parkinson's mortality was flat across 1999-2025; the post-2021 fall largely reflects the unwinding of COVID-19 co-listing.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Data, models and systems, Forecasts and their record, Revisions and new sources, United States, #peer-reviewed, #refines, #item, #source-2026-10, #score-65

This serial cross-sectional study used CDC WONDER multiple-cause records for US adults aged 45 and over. Parkinson's was coded G20 anywhere on the certificate; 1,149,731 deaths were identified, 59.8% in men. The age-adjusted rate was 32.74 per 100,000 in 1999 and 41.03 in 2025, not significantly changed. Rates rose 4.70% yearly from 2014 to 2021; COVID-19 co-listing explained 55% of the 2021-2024 fall. Deaths are projected to rise to 70,825 by 2030, with ageing driving about 87%. The 2025 data are provisional, and counts rose between data extractions.

*Why it is interesting: Separates a certification artefact from an underlying trend: the standardised rate is flat while death counts rise. Place of death has shifted from nursing homes towards home and hospice.*

Source

[Frontiers in Neurology, 17 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.3389/fneur.2026.1934146?ref=coios.me)

Paper

Parkinson’s disease mortality in the United States, 1999–2025: a national multiple-cause-of-death analysis with projections to 2030

Authors

Atif E, Das V, Ali M, Ahmad A, Fatima K, Hassan MA et al.

DOI

10.3389/fneur.2026.1934146

Full text

[Open copy](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13668596/?ref=coios.me) (open-access copy, PubMed Central)

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Serial cross-sectional analysis of CDC WONDER multiple-cause-of-death files, 1,149,731 Parkinson's-related deaths in adults aged 45+, 1999-2025, with joinpoint regression and back-tested ensemble projection to 2030

Verdict

Refines prior evidence

Driver

[Forecasts and their record](https://www.coios.me/d-forecasting/)

Driver

[Revisions and new sources](https://www.coios.me/d-data-sources/)

Abstract — the authors' own words, CC BY

Background

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disorder in the United States and a growing driver of late-life disability and death. We characterized U.S. PD-related mortality from 1999 to 2025 and projected it to 2030.

Methods

In this serial cross-sectional analysis of CDC WONDER Multiple Cause of Death data, PD-related deaths in adults aged ≥45 years were identified using ICD-10 code G20 recorded anywhere on the death certificate. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 were decomposed by joinpoint regression and projected to 2030 using a log-scale ensemble weighted by rolling-origin back-test error, stratified by sex, age, race and ethnicity, census region, and degree of urbanization.

Results

Among 1,149,731 PD-related deaths (59.8% men), the overall AAMR was 32.74 in 1999 and 41.03 (95% CI 40.70–41.35) in 2025, but the full-window trend was not significant (average annual percent change 0.56%; −0.10 to 1.22;

p

\= 0.099). A steep 2014–2021 rise (annual percent change 4.70%;

p

< 0.001) was followed by a non-significant decline, negative in 13 of the 14 strata observed through 2025\. COVID-19 was co-listed on 10.15% of PD-mentioned deaths in 2020 and 0.79% in 2025, accounting for 58% of the 2019–2020 rise and 55% of the 2021–2024 decline; excluding these deaths the series was close to flat (39.88 in 2020; 40.71 in 2025). The projected 2030 AAMR was 41.73 (95% prediction interval 33.97–51.27), essentially unchanged from 2025; however, deaths are projected to rise from 62,162 to 70,825, with approximately 87% of the increase attributable to population aging. Restricting to PD as the underlying cause gave a steeper increase (+86.2% versus +25.3%), arguing against ascertainment drift. Between 1999–2007 and 2017–2025, nursing home deaths fell from 49.24 to 35.48%, while home deaths rose from 19.37 to 34.93% and hospice deaths from 0.88 to 8.25%.

Conclusion

Age-adjusted PD-related mortality did not change significantly between 1999 and 2025\. Most of the post-2021 decline reflects the unwinding of COVID-19 co-listing rather than an improvement in underlying mortality, a mechanism that is now nearly exhausted. Projections indicate a plateau in the standardized rate, while absolute deaths rise with population aging, and end-of-life care has shifted from institutions to homes.