> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.coios.me/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# People who inject drugs in the US: projected deaths, infections and costs, 2025-2034
- URL: https://www.coios.me/people-who-inject-drugs-in-the-us-projected-deaths/
- Published: 2026-10-26T23:21:09.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-27T07:06:24.000Z
- Description: A US microsimulation projects 487 249 deaths from injection drug use and $565 billion in healthcare costs over 2025–2034.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Data, models and systems, Forecasts and their record, Alcohol and drug use, United States, #peer-reviewed, #new, #item, #source-2026-10, #score-60

A microsimulation, drawing on surveillance and published data, modelled 3.3 million US people who inject drugs over 2025–2034\. The base case extends the 1999–2019 linear rise in overdose deaths. It projects 487 249 deaths from injection drug use: 348 650 from overdose and 138 599 from injection-related infections. It also projects 29 715 new HIV and 218 186 new HCV infections or reinfections. Hospitalisations for severe injection-related infections reach 1.7 million. Healthcare costs total $565 billion: $431 billion for drug use itself and $135 billion for injection-related infections. The cohort admits no new entrants, costs are healthcare-only, and the overdose trend is assumed rather than observed.

*Why it is interesting: Overdose causes most deaths, but injection-related infections cause about a fifth of all deaths in the cohort. If the recent 24.5% fall in overdose deaths persists, longer survival adds 36 679 infections.*

Source

[Open Forum Infectious Diseases, 24 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofag675?ref=coios.me)

Paper

Projected Health and Economic Outcomes in People Who Inject Drugs in the United States, 2025-2034: A Modeling Study

Authors

Chiosi JJ, Giardina J, Wakeman SE, Freedberg KA, Chhatwal J, Ciaranello AL

DOI

10.1093/ofid/ofag675

Full text

[Open copy](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13693477/?ref=coios.me) (open-access copy, PubMed Central)

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Microsimulation model (MYRIAD) of 3.3 million US people who inject drugs, projecting clinical outcomes and costs 2025-2034, with deterministic sensitivity and scenario analyses

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Forecasts and their record](https://www.coios.me/d-forecasting/)

Driver

[Alcohol and drug use](https://www.coios.me/d-alcohol-drugs/)

Free full text

[Free to read at the publisher](https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofag675?ref=coios.me)