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# Projected cancer cases in sexual and gender minorities rise with self-identification
- URL: https://www.coios.me/projected-cancer-cases-in-sexual-and-gender-minorities-rise/
- Published: 2026-09-23T12:25:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-23T21:35:10.000Z
- Description: A projection applying cancer incidence rates to survey identification proportions estimated 15 times more cases at ages 55 to 59 among Millennial than Silent Generation sexual and gender minority Americans, 77,521 against 5,134 over five years, driven by who identifies rather than by risk.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Healthcare today, Cancer, Capacity, funding and care, The sources behind the numbers, United States, #peer-reviewed, #new, #item, #source-2026-09

Age-period-cohort models were fitted to registry incidence for breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancer and melanoma, projected to 2040 to 2044, then applied to census population estimates weighted by generation- and sex-specific identification proportions from 2023 to 2024 survey data. At ages 55 to 59, projected five-year burden was 15 times higher among Millennials than the Silent Generation, 77,521 against 5,134 cases, with Millennials accounting for 68.4% of breast and 59.7% of colorectal cases in this population by 2040 to 2044\. The authors attribute the difference primarily to the larger share of younger cohorts identifying as sexual or gender minorities.

*Why it is interesting: A worked example of how much of a projected rise in burden can come from the denominator's composition rather than from incidence.*

Source

[Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, 22 September 2026](https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.epi-26-0504?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.1158/1055-9965.epi-26-0504

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Age-period-cohort projection (Nordpred) of SEER 12-registry incidence for five cancers to 2040-2044, applied to Census population estimates and Gallup 2023-24 sexual and gender minority identification proportions

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Cancer](https://www.coios.me/d-cancer/)

Driver

[Capacity, funding and care](https://www.coios.me/d-capacity-funding/)

Driver

[The sources behind the numbers](https://www.coios.me/d-data-sources/)