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# Real cigarette prices rose 2.9% a year worldwide between 2008 and 2024
- URL: https://www.coios.me/real-cigarette-prices-rose-2-9-a-year-worldwide-between/
- Published: 2026-10-06T12:55:55.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-06T17:10:56.000Z
- Description: A panel analysis of most-sold-brand cigarette prices across 195 countries found inflation-adjusted international dollar prices rising 2.9% a year from 2008 to 2024, with over a fifth of nominal prices unchanged between successive periods and up to 40% in the African region.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Weighing data and models, Revisions and new sources, Smoking and vaping, Changing behaviour at scale, World, #preprint, #new, #item, #source-2026-10

The study tracked nominal and inflation-adjusted retail prices of the most-sold cigarette brand in 195 countries across nine editions of the WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, 2008-2024, and modelled how long countries would need to reach a 50% real price rise. Real prices grew at a least-squares annual rate of 2.9% (95% UI 2.8-3.0%), and one-third of countries recorded real prices at least 50% higher than ten years earlier. Over a fifth of nominal prices were unchanged between successive periods, rising to 40% in the WHO African region, and excise tax increases strongly predicted price increases.

*Why it is interesting: It puts an empirical base under the WHO 3 by 35 price target, and counts how often real prices rose by 50% over ten years without a deliberate tax strategy.*

Source

[medRxiv, 5 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.28.26364093?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.64898/2026.09.28.26364093

Type

Preprint

Design

Longitudinal panel analysis of most-sold-brand cigarette prices in 195 countries, nine WHO report editions, 2008-2024, with forecasting

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Revisions and new sources](https://www.coios.me/d-data-sources/)

Driver

[Smoking and vaping](https://www.coios.me/d-smoking-vaping/)

Driver

[Changing behaviour at scale](https://www.coios.me/d-behaviour-change/)