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# Stroke mortality in Japan showed a modest excess in 2022, concentrated in older men
- URL: https://www.coios.me/stroke-mortality-in-japan-showed-a-modest-excess-in-2022/
- Published: 2026-11-03T13:00:13.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-03T17:57:13.000Z
- Description: Japan recorded 3,434 excess stroke deaths in 2020-2022, almost all in 2022 and mostly among males aged 70 or over.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Data, models and systems, Forecasts and their record, Heart and stroke, Infection and pandemics, Japan, #peer-reviewed, #refines, #item, #source-2026-11, #score-60

This national study estimated excess stroke deaths (ICD-10 I60-I69) across Japan's 47 prefectures in 2020-2022\. Poisson models with a spline for calendar time projected expected deaths from 2014-2019 baselines, by prefecture, sex and age. Japan recorded 3,434 excess stroke deaths (95% CI 2,366-4,503), or 0.93 per 100,000, with 3,248 in males. Excess rates were 7.15 per 100,000 at ages 70-79 and 3.44 at 80 and over. Almost all the excess emerged in 2022\. Twenty prefectures showed significant excesses and 16 showed deficits. The estimate depended on the assumed pre-pandemic trend, and the associations do not establish causation.

*Why it is interesting: Stroke mortality had already stopped falling before the pandemic, so the choice of baseline drives any excess estimate. The excess appeared only in 2022, not in the first two pandemic years.*

Source

[Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, 2 November 2026](https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.26.396?ref=coios.me)

Paper

Stroke Mortality in Japan During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A National Ecological Study, 2014 to 2022

Authors

Jamil H, Kurosaka A, Suzuki T, Abubakar AK, Gyeltshen T, Babu HW et al.

DOI

10.3961/jpmph.26.396

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

National ecological excess-mortality study, 47 Japanese prefectures, stroke deaths (ICD-10 I60-I69) 2014-2022, Poisson baseline fitted 2014-2019 with natural cubic spline, bootstrap CIs

Verdict

Refines prior evidence

Driver

[Forecasts and their record](https://www.coios.me/d-forecasting/)

Driver

[Heart and stroke](https://www.coios.me/d-cardiovascular/)

Driver

[Infection and pandemics](https://www.coios.me/d-infectious-disease/)