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# Temperature-attributable cardiovascular deaths in Europe may double by late century
- URL: https://www.coios.me/temperature-attributable-cardiovascular-deaths-in-europe/
- Published: 2026-10-23T13:20:03.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-23T16:55:03.000Z
- Description: Under high emissions, temperature-attributable cardiovascular deaths in Europe rise from 31.4 to 62.4 per 100,000, with heat-attributable rates up 472%.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Tomorrow's world, A changing climate, Forecasts and their record, European Union, #peer-reviewed, #refines, #item, #source-2026-10, #score-80

Temperature-attributable cardiovascular mortality was projected on a 0.25° grid of 12,411 cells across 37 European countries. National cardiovascular deaths for 2016-2023 were downscaled by population, with pooled 27-country relative risks applied as attributable fractions. Daily temperature came from five bias-corrected climate models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5\. At baseline, non-optimal temperature accounted for 168,586 cardiovascular deaths yearly, 31.4 per 100,000, cold outnumbering heat five to one. Under SSP5-8.5 this reached 62.4 per 100,000 by late century, heat-attributable rates rising 472%. Ageing added over 80% beyond warming alone; relative risks were borrowed from a pooled study, not estimated locally.

*Why it is interesting: It separates the contribution of population ageing from that of warming itself. With age structure held at 2020 levels, cold-attributable rates decline over the century while heat-attributable rates rise.*

Source

[European Journal of Preventive Cardiology, 19 October 2026](https://doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwag533?ref=coios.me)

Paper

Temperature-Attributable Cardiovascular Mortality in Europe Under Future Climate Scenarios: Projected Impacts of Population Aging and Climate Change to 2080

Authors

Parameswaran G, Ponnana SR, Sirasapalli SK, Presswalla F, Surya N, Zhang T et al.

DOI

10.1093/eurjpc/zwag533

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Grid-based attributable-fraction projection, 12,411 cells across 37 European countries, CVD deaths 2016-2023 baseline, five bias-corrected climate models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 to 2080, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Verdict

Refines prior evidence

Driver

[A changing climate](https://www.coios.me/d-climate/)

Driver

[Forecasts and their record](https://www.coios.me/d-forecasting/)