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# The same naloxone increase is modelled to save six times more lives in one county
- URL: https://www.coios.me/the-same-naloxone-increase-is-modelled-to-save-six-times/
- Published: 2026-09-20T09:37:40.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-20T09:37:40.000Z
- Description: A simulation calibrated to six Pennsylvania counties projected that an identical 30% rise in naloxone distribution would cut 2029 overdose deaths by 70% in Allegheny but 11% in Erie, a difference tracking each county's past variability in dispensing rather than any observed outcome.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Behavioural science, Alcohol, drugs and suicide, United States, #preprint, #new, #item, #source-2026-09

An opioid use disorder simulation was calibrated separately to two large urban, two intermediate and two rural Pennsylvania counties, then used to project overdose mortality to 2029 under 10%, 20% and 30% increases in naloxone distribution and buprenorphine dispensing. A 30% naloxone increase was projected to cut 2029 deaths by 70% (55 to 81%) in Allegheny, 28% (2 to 64%) in Clearfield and 11% (4 to 17%) in Erie, against 10 to 23% for buprenorphine. Responsiveness tracked each county's historical variability in dispensing, so the spread is a property of the calibration rather than a measured difference.

*Why it is interesting: It sets out how far the return on an identical harm-reduction increase may vary within one state, on model calibration alone.*

Source

[medRxiv, 18 September 2026](https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.05.11.26352900?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.64898/2026.05.11.26352900

Type

Preprint

Design

Simulation model of opioid use disorder calibrated separately to six Pennsylvania counties, projecting 2025-2029 overdose mortality under 10-30% increases in naloxone distribution and buprenorphine dispensing

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Alcohol, drugs and suicide](https://www.coios.me/d-alcohol-drugs-suicide/)