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# Three Holter ECG markers with age predicted 5-year mortality at AUROC 0.79 in Israel
- URL: https://www.coios.me/three-holter-ecg-markers-with-age-predicted-5-year/
- Published: 2026-09-20T09:36:03.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-20T09:36:03.000Z
- Description: A random forest combining atrial fibrillation burden, premature ventricular contraction burden and T-wave alternans with age reached an AUROC of 0.79 for five-year all-cause mortality in 54,395 people recorded at Israeli primary care centres.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Emergent technology, AI in medicine, Israel, #peer-reviewed, #refines, #item, #source-2026-09

Researchers analysed 81,362 Holter recordings from 54,395 individuals across 20 primary care centres in Israel, deriving atrial fibrillation burden, premature ventricular contraction burden and T-wave alternans and combining them with age in a random forest. Five-year discrimination was 0.75 for heart failure, 0.69 for ischaemic stroke and 0.79 for all-cause mortality, with the three markers adding up to 10% over age alone below age 75.

*Why it is interesting: Tests whether routinely recorded single-lead ECG features add prognostic information beyond age in an unselected primary care population.*

Source

[Physiological Measurement, 18 September 2026](https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6579/aea9ec?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.1088/1361-6579/aea9ec

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Retrospective cohort: 81,362 Holter recordings from 54,395 people at 20 Israeli primary care centres; random forest predicting 5-year outcomes

Verdict

Refines prior evidence

Driver

[AI in medicine](https://www.coios.me/d-ai-medicine/)