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# Uvira's 2020 cholera vaccination campaign averted an estimated 56% of infections
- URL: https://www.coios.me/uvira-s-2020-cholera-vaccination-campaign-averted-an/
- Published: 2026-09-21T08:02:14.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-21T08:02:14.000Z
- Description: A Bayesian model fitted to seven years of enhanced cholera surveillance in Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo, estimates that a 2020 oral vaccination campaign reaching 66% coverage averted 56% (95% CrI 34-81) of infections and deaths over the following three years.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Healthcare today, Infectious disease and pandemics, DR Congo, #preprint, #new, #item, #source-2026-09

The authors combined rapid-test-confirmed surveillance at Uvira's two cholera treatment facilities with repeated population surveys of care-seeking, vaccination, mobility and antibodies, and fitted an ensemble of transmission models to estimate what would have happened without the 2020 campaign. The campaign, reaching 66% of the population with at least one dose, was estimated to have averted 56% (95% CrI 34-81) of infections and deaths over three years, about 2,350 facility-attended cases and 44 deaths. Full coverage of the eligible population would have averted 64% (43-87), in a preprint.

*Why it is interesting: One of few population-level estimates of oral cholera vaccine impact in an endemic African city, and it bounds what vaccination alone achieves where transmission is intense.*

Source

[medRxiv, 20 September 2026](https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.09.17.26363298?ref=coios.me)

DOI

10.64898/2026.09.17.26363298

Type

Preprint

Design

Surveillance-based Bayesian counterfactual transmission modelling, Uvira, DRC, Jan 2017–Dec 2023, around a 2020 campaign reaching 66% single-dose coverage

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Infectious disease and pandemics](https://www.coios.me/d-infectious-disease/)