> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.coios.me/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# Vitamin D for US adults with prediabetes saved costs in a lifetime microsimulation model
- URL: https://www.coios.me/vitamin-d-for-us-adults-with-prediabetes-saved-costs-in-a/
- Published: 2026-11-08T13:05:13.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-08T14:09:13.000Z
- Description: In a simulated US cohort with prediabetes, daily vitamin D3 lowered lifetime costs by $3208 per person and added 0.12 QALYs, assuming the 15% cut in diabetes risk seen in pooled trials.
- Author: Daniel Ryan
- Tags: Data, models and systems, Value in health, Obesity, diabetes and GLP-1, United States, #peer-reviewed, #new, #item, #source-2026-11, #score-65

This study modelled the lifetime costs and benefits of daily vitamin D3 for US adults with prediabetes. It ran the CDC–RTI diabetes microsimulation on 10,000 simulated people built from 4176 NHANES 2013–2018 adults. It assumed 85% adherence and a 15% cut in diabetes risk, from pooled data of three placebo-controlled trials. Vitamin D cut lifetime costs by $3208 per person, though the 95% uncertainty interval included a $171 rise. It added 0.12 QALYs and a net monetary benefit of $15,483 at $100,000 per QALY. The main limitation is that lifetime gains are model extrapolations of the trial effect, without long-term trial follow-up.

*Why it is interesting: Diabetes prevention trials mostly test lifestyle programmes or drugs that reach few people. The model finds that a $60-a-year supplement offsets its own cost through fewer complications, if the modest trial effect lasts.*

Source

[The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, 4 November 2026](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2026.101543?ref=coios.me)

Paper

The cost-effectiveness of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of type 2 diabetes in the United States: a microsimulation modelling study

Authors

Briody J, Pittas AG, Zhang P, Shao Y, Gregg E

DOI

10.1016/j.lana.2026.101543

Full text

[Open copy](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC13728357/?ref=coios.me) (open-access copy, PubMed Central)

Type

Peer-reviewed article

Design

Microsimulation cost-utility model, NHANES 2013-2018 cohort of 4176 US adults with prediabetes scaled to 10,000, treatment effects pooled from three RCTs (D2d, DPVD, Tromsø), 10-year and lifetime horizons, 2024 USD

Verdict

New finding

Driver

[Value in health](https://www.coios.me/d-health-economics/)

Driver

[Obesity, diabetes and GLP-1](https://www.coios.me/d-obesity-diabetes/)