As England moved to Tier 4 last Thursday and an attenuated version of the first national lockdown, we update our prior analysis of international COVID-19 hospitalisation rates to the end of October. Indicative patterns from before are now stark as we see rapid growth in hospital admissions in many, but not all, European countries.
These analyses spark many questions, but two in particular will receive more attention in the coming weeks:
1) Will Germany & the Netherlands continue to see very low hospitalisation rates, far below their hospitalisation rates from the first wave.
2) How much further would hospitalisation admission rates in France, Italy and the UK have climbed without partial lockdowns, standing already at 50-70% of their first wave peaks?
National lockdowns are effective but blunt tools for denting viral ambitions as we see once again from the restrictions imposed in Spain earlier in October, but this sacrificed month of November must not be squandered.