GBD 2021 extends its cause-specific modelling forward to 2050 for 204 countries, forecasting mortality, YLLs, YLDs and DALYs by age and sex from the Socio-demographic Index and the full set of causal risk exposures, with all-cause forecasts cascading down the cause hierarchy. The reference forecast has global life expectancy at 78.1 years in 2050 against 73.6 in 2022, with convergence between super-regions and a continuing shift from communicable to non-communicable causes. Alternative scenarios replace reference risk trajectories with gradual elimination of environmental, metabolic and behavioural risks from current levels.
Why it is interesting: The most widely cited public forecast of cause-specific mortality to 2050, and a documented method whose structure and track record can be examined against national projections.