COIOS — COIOS - International risk research catalyst focused on health & longevity research
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Official figures
Where the evidence stands
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Forecasts and their record
How the forecasts are made, how well they explained the past, and how well mortality can be forecast — and by whom.
None this week Earlier → -
Innovation in treatment
Treatments that did not exist before — drugs, operations, devices — and whether they reach the people who would benefit.
1 this week -
Cancer
Where is cancer incidence rising and falling, what screening and new tests find earlier, and what treatment has done to survival.
5 this week -
Diet, exercise and sleep
What people eat and how much they move: what the measured evidence says each does to mortality, and what has been shown to change either.
2 this week -
What linked data reveals
What linked registries make it possible to know about whole populations
5 this week -
Changing behaviour at scale
Whether new technology can change what people do at the scale of a population: apps, wearables, automated messages, digital programmes and platforms, and how far their effects last and reach.
1 this week -
Obesity, diabetes and GLP-1
Are obesity and diabetes still rising, what behavioural change and public policy do, and what difference do GLP-1s and other similar drugs make.
5 this week -
Smoking and vaping
How far smoking has fallen and how many deaths it still causes, what vaping is doing to the people who take it up, and what generational bans will show.
3 this week -
Alcohol and drug use
What is happening to deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide, whether they move together, and how much of it is behaviour and how much circumstance.
None this week Earlier → -
Medicine at a distance
What wearables, remote monitoring and care at home add to how health is measured and delivered, and whether it shows in outcomes.
1 this week -
Heart and stroke
Whether deaths from heart disease and stroke have stopped falling, what is found earlier, what treatment and prevention do now, and what the deaths say.
4 this week -
AI in medicine
Whether machine learning predicts, detects and decides better than the tools we have, and whether that has yet changed an outcome for a population.
1 this week -
Health systems and access
What the health system can provide, who gets it, and whether the gaps in health between groups are widening.
3 this week -
Mental health
Deaths by suicide, the life expectancy gap in severe mental illness, and the physical disease that follows it: what mental illness costs in lives.
4 this week -
A changing climate
How air pollution, heat and cold affect deaths and survival, how the attribution is made, and how the balance is changing.
1 this week -
Social connection
Isolation, loneliness and mortality: what the evidence shows, how far the relationship is causal, and what interventions have shown.
None this week Earlier → -
Infection and pandemics
Infection and pandemics: the risks, and how well prepared we are
7 this week -
Value in health
What a treatment, health programme or policy is worth against what it costs, and how far the models that decide it can be trusted.
2 this week -
Slowing ageing itself
Whether anything yet slows ageing itself, rather than treating one disease at a time, and how we would know if it did.
2 this week -
Dementia
Whether dementia is becoming more or less common, what is now found, what treatment and prevention do, and what the deaths say.
2 this week -
Revisions and new sources
What the figures are built from, what is newly available, and how much the numbers move when they are revised.
None this week Earlier → -
Adherence and persistence
Whether a treatment is actually taken, for how long, and what changes either.
3 this week -
Frailty and multimorbidity
Whether the years added after 85 are healthy ones, how frailty and multiple conditions are measured, and where the data run out.
1 this week
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Health todayHeart and stroke new
Top 10% by polygenic risk carry a fifth of Taiwan's atrial fibrillation
Taiwan Biobank genotypes were linked to national insurance claims for 140,000 people, and those in the top 10% by polygenic risk were 3.56 times as likely to develop atrial fibrillation.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Higher HPV antibody levels are associated with greater vaccine efficacy across types
A Bayesian meta-analysis of randomised HPV vaccine trials found higher type-specific antibody levels associated with greater efficacy against infection and CIN2+, with the level associated with protection differing by type.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself refines
Immune gene HLA-DRB1*04 is commoner in centenarians, DRB1*01:01 in Alzheimer's patients
Fine-mapping of HLA class II immune genes in 6,053 people found DRB1*04 subtypes commoner in 443 cognitively healthy centenarians, and DRB1*01:01 commoner in the 2,391 Alzheimer's patients.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health refines
Severe mental illness costs Norwegian men 1.5 to 19.9 life-years depending on subgroup
In a Norwegian registry cohort of 2,486,836 adults followed from 2008 to 2023, excess life-years lost from age 30 in men ranged from 1.50 for depression with non-inpatient care and university education to 19.86 for schizophrenia with inpatient care and less than high school education.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence new
Most adults starting semaglutide or tirzepatide did not continue for a year
Among 743,153 US adults starting semaglutide or tirzepatide for obesity in 2024, 29.9% and 35.9% respectively were still being prescribed the drug at 12 months.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access new
Twelve-hour emergency stays carry 1.95 times the hospitalisation risk over two years
Among 3,347,008 working-age adults attending emergency departments in England, stays of 12 hours or more carried 1.95 times the hospitalisation risk over two years, compared with stays under two hours.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate refines
Summer heat in Italy raises deaths from nervous system and mental illness
Across 7,864 Italian municipalities over 20 summers, heat-attributable fractions were highest for nervous system diseases at 14.93% and mental and behavioural disorders at 14.47%.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep new
Weight-management texts did not reduce weight in postpartum women over 12 months
Among 892 postpartum women with a BMI of 25 or more, 12 months of automated weight-management texts made no difference to weight against texts on child health (-0.1 kg).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer new
Menopausal hormone therapy users had higher breast cancer incidence but lower mortality
In 78,209 women in the PLCO screening trial, ever use of menopausal hormone therapy was associated with higher breast cancer incidence (aHR 1.17) and lower breast cancer mortality (0.72).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
Nicotine pouch take-up is higher among US adults using other tobacco products
In the PATH study of 24,640 US adults, those using smokeless tobacco only took up oral nicotine pouches at 42.4 times the rate of adults using no other tobacco product.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep refines
Swapping sleep for activity relates to mortality differently in short sleepers
Among UK Biobank adults meeting sleep duration guidelines, moving 30 minutes from sleep to moderate or vigorous activity carried an all-cause mortality hazard ratio of 0.80.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics refines
Dutch infant vaccination uptake fell during the pandemic and again after it
Children in the Netherlands due their first diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-polio dose after the pandemic had a fifth the odds of vaccination by six months of their pre-pandemic siblings.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Modelled extra HPV doses for women with HIV averted cervical cancer
A Markov model of 13 African countries found that extra HPV doses for women living with HIV averted cervical cancer beyond routine vaccination at 14, at added programme cost.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Modelled early pandemic costs rise more from too little control than from too much
In models fitted to first-year COVID-19 cases in 110 countries, controlling transmission five points below the cost-optimal level carried excess costs above 400%, against 10-80% five points above.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayDementia new
Dementia mortality is higher where outdoor ultrafine particle levels are higher
In 2.1 million adults in Montreal and Toronto, each 10,000 particle/cm3 increase in outdoor ultrafine particle concentration was associated with a 22% higher rate of dementia mortality.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
Oral safiglipron lowered HbA1c as much as dapagliflozin, and more at 90 mg
In adults with type 2 diabetes, once-daily oral safiglipron lowered HbA1c at least as much as dapagliflozin, and by more at the 90 mg dose.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
Real cigarette prices rose 2.9% a year across 195 countries
Inflation-adjusted cigarette prices across 195 countries rose 2.9% a year between 2008 and 2024, with over a fifth of nominal prices unchanged between successive periods.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence confirms
Older adults starting GLP-1 drugs were younger and heavier than other initiators
Among 58,754 adults aged 65 and over with type 2 diabetes, mean BMI at initiation was 33.8 for GLP-1 drugs as compared to 29.7 for SGLT2 inhibitors.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer refines
Under 2 mm of Gleason pattern 4 matches favourable intermediate-risk prostate cancer
Among 2499 men with Grade Group 2-4 prostate cancer, those with under 2 mm of Gleason pattern 4 had 5-year biochemical recurrence of 20%, matching favourable intermediate-risk disease.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
RSV and rhinovirus caused more Brazilian respiratory deaths in 2026 than influenza
Brazilian surveillance over 35 weeks of 2026 recorded more severe respiratory deaths from RSV and rhinovirus than from influenza, concentrated in children under 2 and those aged 65 and over.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
One in seven Danish anorexia patients became steadily more ill after diagnosis
Among 9,534 Danish patients with anorexia nervosa, one in seven became steadily more ill, with more psychiatric and physical illness in the five years after diagnosis.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
An estimated 1.32% of US adults had hepatitis C in 2017-2020
An estimated 1.32% of US adults, or 3.33 million people, had hepatitis C over 2017-2020, on a model combining six surveillance, claims and Medicaid sources.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance new
Older patients on a virtual ward reported fewer depressive symptoms than inpatients
Among 100 patients aged 70 and over, 72% of hospital inpatients screened positive for depressive symptoms as compared to 30% of those cared for on a virtual ward.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health new
Infection followed hip fracture in 43% of older Danish patients with dementia
Among 100,335 Danish hip fracture patients aged 65 and over, infection within 30 days reached 43.0% in those with dementia, as compared to 18.4% in matched comparators with dementia.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer new
PSMA-guided radiotherapy did not improve failure-free survival in prostate cancer
In a phase 2 trial of 253 men, radiotherapy targeted to every lesion seen on PSMA-PET gave five-year failure-free survival of 66% against 62% for standard care.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
STEMI patients judged at high risk of shock had double the ten-year mortality
Among 1,574 Danish STEMI patients treated by primary angioplasty, those a score marked as at high risk of shock in hospital had ten-year mortality of 41% against 20%.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke confirms
US deaths recording both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest rose faster after 2014
Deaths of US adults recording both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest rose by 2.72% a year to 2014, then by 9.55% a year to 2020.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Japanese romosozumab starters had less recent heart attack or stroke than other users
Among 311,585 Japanese patients starting romosozumab between 2019 and 2023, 11.7% of men and 7.9% of women had a myocardial infarction or stroke in the prior 360 days, below the 8.9-17.6% among users of other osteoporosis drugs, and those with such a history discontinued more often.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics confirms
VAERS reports after the 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine were consistent with earlier seasons
A CDC review of 9856 US VAERS reports following the 2024-2025 JN.1-based COVID-19 vaccine found 8.9% serious, eight Guillain-Barre and six myocarditis or myopericarditis cases meeting case definitions, with reporting rates below background rates for both.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
One in five Australian paediatricians surveyed provides vaping cessation support
Of 90 paediatricians and registrars surveyed across Australia in 2023, over two-thirds routinely advised adolescents against vaping, but only one in five provided cessation support.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Machine learning screen finds 17 dietary polyphenols that bind Salmonella proteins
A graph neural network screened over 7,000 plant compounds, and laboratory binding assays confirmed that 17 dietary polyphenols attach to two proteins Salmonella uses to coordinate its virulence.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Treating drug-resistant TB contacts up to age 45 was modelled as cost-effective
A model of 189 countries found that offering preventive treatment to household contacts of drug-resistant tuberculosis up to age 45, rather than only under-15s, was cost-effective in 160 countries.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 confirms
Overweight/obesity in German children stands at 16.1%, unchanged over two decades
Measured height and weight in a representative sample of 3,978 German children aged 4 to 17 gave an overweight and obesity prevalence of 16.1%, with obesity alone at 6.7%.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer confirms
Multi-cancer early detection blood test detected 15.4% of stage I cancers
A methylation and protein blood test identified 50.9% of cancers across 21 tumour organ types at a specificity of 98.5%, in a multi-centre case-control study of 6,352 samples.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics confirms
Digital reminders raised child vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries
A meta-analysis of 22 randomised trials in low- and middle-income countries found reminders raised the share of children vaccinated relative to usual care (RR 1.27), though trial results varied widely.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsForecasts and their record new
Nigeria's HPV programme is modelled to avert 1.82 million cervical cancers
Continuing to vaccinate Nigerian girls aged 9 to 14 is projected to avert 1.82 million cervical cancer cases to 2100, with 945,000 remaining in women already too old.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Tuberculosis vaccine VPM1002 is modelled as stronger against disease outside the lungs
A dynamic model of tuberculosis in India estimated the VPM1002 vaccine to be 42.9% effective against disease outside the lungs and 14.0% against lung disease, both intervals including no effect.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health refines
Depression carried a 65% higher rate of new cardiometabolic disease over 15 years
Among 1858 Dutch adults followed for 15 years, lifetime major depression was associated with higher cardiometabolic disease incidence (HR 1.65), with no one symptom pattern carrying more risk than another.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection confirms
Two ways of asking about loneliness disagree over graduates in England
Among 135,725 adult volunteers in England, university education was associated with higher loneliness on a three-question scale but with lower loneliness when people were asked directly.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use confirms
Norway's ban on all alcohol advertising has survived 50 years of legal challenge
A review of Norwegian government documents, parliamentary papers and court rulings traces the alcohol marketing ban in force since 1975, which has adapted to alcohol-free beers and social media.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping refines
Seven in ten Korean heated tobacco and cigarette users moved to cigarettes
Among 7.26 million Korean adults screened between 2019 and 2023, users of heated tobacco or e-cigarettes were more likely to quit cigarettes, but also more likely to start smoking again.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInnovation in treatment new
Oral orforglipron is tested for cardiovascular safety against insulin in type 2 diabetes
A phase 3 trial randomised 2749 adults with type 2 diabetes and heart or kidney disease to oral orforglipron or insulin glargine, and followed them for a median two years.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Sotagliflozin after worsening heart failure is modelled at $75,510 per QALY gained
A lifetime microsimulation of patients with type 2 diabetes after worsening heart failure put sotagliflozin at $75,510 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, at an assumed net cost of $434 a month.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer refines
England's cervical screening coverage gap by deprivation has widened to 7.4 points
Cervical screening coverage in England in 2024 ranged from 73.5% in the least deprived areas to 66.1% in the most deprived, a wider gap than that recorded twelve years earlier.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
Never starting anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation carried the highest annual costs
Among 47,427 Scots with incident atrial fibrillation, annual healthcare costs were GBP 7,288 per patient on continuous oral anticoagulation and GBP 22,751 for those never started on it.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
Weight loss in impaired glucose tolerance went with fewer deaths over 34 years
In 540 Chinese adults with impaired glucose tolerance, a weight loss of 5% or more over six years carried a hazard ratio for death of 0.67 against no weight loss.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance refines
Systolic pressure was 5.8 mmHg lower with apps and wearables after stroke
Across 29 studies in 8,389 stroke and transient ischaemic attack survivors, systolic blood pressure was 5.8 mmHg lower with mobile applications or wearables, though prediction intervals crossed the null.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
A blood protein score of cellular ageing predicted death in UK Biobank
A blood protein score of cellular ageing, built in UK Biobank, predicted death and later dementia, COPD, heart attack and stroke, and changed over 18 months with exercise.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence new
Fewer than one in five US stroke and TIA patients filled a P2Y12 inhibitor
Among 45,763 US adults with a first ischaemic stroke or TIA, 18.9% filled a P2Y12 inhibitor within 30 days, and half of clopidogrel initiators had stopped filling by 180 days.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access confirms
Adult mortality is 26% higher for those whose fathers held lower-ranked jobs
A meta-analysis of 102 cohort studies covering about 8.5 million people in 24 countries found adult all-cause mortality 26% higher for those whose fathers held lower-ranked occupations.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence refines
Tirzepatide initiators stayed on treatment longer than semaglutide initiators
In propensity-matched US claims data on adults with type 2 diabetes, 12-month adherence was 60% for tirzepatide initiators against 45% for semaglutide initiators among GLP-1-naive patients, with persistence of 62% against 47%.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself refines
Proteomic organ clocks tracked 16-year mortality less closely than epigenetic age
Accelerated liver, immune and heart proteomic ageing carried hazard ratios of 1.38 to 1.43 per standard deviation for 16-year mortality, below those for epigenetic age and cognition.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
GLP-1 prescribing to US children aged 8-11 with obesity rose but stayed under 1%
Among 3.5 million US children aged 8 to 11 with obesity and without diabetes recorded in Epic Cosmos between 2019 and June 2026, 0.6% received a GLP-1 receptor agonist prescription, with rates highest among 11-year-olds, girls, and those with obesity-related comorbidities.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate new
Daily cancer deaths in Japan were 0.88% higher per 10 micrograms/m3 of PM2.5
A 10 microgram per cubic metre rise in PM2.5 was associated with 0.88% more cancer deaths in Japan, though the association did not survive adjustment for NO2 or SO2.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Language models identified overdose deaths from New York investigators' written reports
Reading the reports New York City death investigators write on each case, the better of two language models identified suspected overdose deaths with 92% sensitivity and 88% positive predictive value.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Modelled depression screening of KwaZulu-Natal sex workers averts HIV at $490 per QALY
A transmission model for KwaZulu-Natal found depression screening with behavioural treatment most cost-effective among female sex workers, at $350 per HIV infection averted and $490 per QALY gained.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use new
One in nine older US cannabis users meets criteria for cannabis use disorder
In a national US survey, 8.9% of adults aged 65 and over had used cannabis in the past year, and 11.4% of those met criteria for cannabis use disorder.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself new
Uncertainty in a biological age estimate is itself associated with mortality
In over 450,000 UK Biobank participants, the uncertainty of a biological age estimate was associated with mortality, multimorbidity and loss of healthspan independently of the age gap itself.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Modelled hepatitis B cure is cost-effective under USD46,642 a course in the US
A Markov model estimated that a hepatitis B cure regimen working in 30% of patients would be cost-effective at a one-off price below USD46,642 in the US.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsRevisions and new sources new
Electronic death notification in Zambia lifted completeness from 11.9% to 17.4%
An electronic version of Zambia's death notification form, used in burial offices across four provinces, cut the mean reporting delay from six days to three.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
Oral GLP-1 tablet safiglipron cut HbA1c by up to 1.45 points in type 2 diabetes
In the OUTSTAND-1 trial, once-daily safiglipron tablets lowered HbA1c by up to 1.45 percentage points more than placebo over 32 weeks in untreated type 2 diabetes.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection refines
Loneliness predicts psychological distress better than other social measures
In a 29-country European survey of 48,377 respondents, loneliness was the strongest social predictor of psychological distress, and the other social measures together added 0.006 to the AUC.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayDementia refines
APOE e4 dementia risk is largest in European ancestry across 367,757 US adults
A study of APOE genotype against 2,632 traits and conditions in 367,757 All of Us participants found 27 associations, with dementia risk largest in those of European ancestry.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics refines
Modelling puts maternal deaths 68,489 above pre-pandemic trends over 2020 to 2023
Models fitted to WHO/UN estimates for 2000 to 2019 put maternal deaths for 2020 to 2023 at 68,489 above the projected path, with excess detectable in 113 of 195 countries.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Between 15% and 49% of heart disease patients had clinically elevated cardiac anxiety
A review of 26 studies in 9,628 patients with cardiovascular disease found clinically elevated fear of cardiac sensations in 15% to 49%, varying with the questionnaire cut-off used.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection new
Carers who repeatedly stop and restart unpaid care are more likely to smoke
In the UK Household Longitudinal Study, adults repeatedly moving in and out of unpaid caring had higher odds of smoking (OR 1.67) and lower odds of physical inactivity (OR 0.65).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 confirms
Lower education was the most consistent marker of obesity in Korean adults
Analysis of Korea's national health and nutrition survey for 2022 to 2024 found lower education the most consistent marker of obesity in adults, with income and employment less consistent.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping confirms
Brief tobacco intervention lowered risk scores in Indian guards, fading by day 90
In a randomised trial among 86 male security personnel at a North Indian tertiary hospital, a WHO ASSIST-linked brief intervention reduced tobacco risk scores relative to general health information, with a group-by-time effect size of 0.34 and dependence differences weakening by day 90.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
Deaths after CPR in US hospitals remained above pre-pandemic levels through 2022
Among 612,930 weighted US hospitalisations with CPR after in-hospital cardiac arrest, 67.8% of patients died, and adjusted odds of death in 2021 were 1.26x those in 2016.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayDementia confirms
Lithium use was associated with 37% lower dementia risk in pooled cohort studies
A meta-analysis of 23 studies pooled four cohort studies to a hazard ratio of 0.63 for dementia among lithium users, although the authors state that causality is not established.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Language models identified in-hospital cardiac arrests better than ICD codes
On a hand-picked set of notes, a trained language model flagged encounters for in-hospital cardiac arrest of which 88% were genuine, against 68% for an ICD-code algorithm.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Black patients were 4% of enrolment in the defining hypertrophic cardiomyopathy trials
Across 13 of the trials that define current treatment of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, Black patients were 3.98% of Black and White participants, as compared to 16.5% of US adults.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Offering HPV vaccine at 9-10 brought median series completion to 12.2 years
In a cluster-randomised trial in 31 US paediatric practices, offering HPV vaccination at ages 9-10 rather than 11-12 brought median age at series completion forward from 13.3 to 12.2 years.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Kidney disease progressed less often on a GLP-1 drug plus SGLT2 inhibitor
Among 32,448 matched adults with chronic kidney disease, those adding a GLP-1 drug to an SGLT2 inhibitor had 0.70 times the rate of kidney disease progression over a median year.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health new
One gene variant more than triples serious mental illness risk in Colombia
Exome sequencing of 21,958 cases and 19,826 controls in a Colombian founder population identified seven genes associated with serious mental illness, one variant raising risk more than threefold.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 confirms
Swiss children with obesity from poorer areas arrive with worse cardiometabolic risk
Among 886 children treated for obesity in Bern, ten points higher on the neighbourhood socioeconomic index was associated with lower obesity severity and lower odds of insulin resistance (OR 0.80).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsForecasts and their record refines
Pandemic excess deaths were partly offset by a death deficit in 2024 and 2025
Across 38 countries with reliable death registration, excess deaths of 1.99-2.88 million in 2020-2023 were followed by a deficit of 0.39-1.08 million in 2024-2025.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
New heart failure was slightly less common on tirzepatide than semaglutide
Among 424,269 matched pairs of patients with obesity in the TriNetX records, one-year new-onset heart failure was 1.0% on tirzepatide and 1.3% on semaglutide.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
AI-guided ultrasound by operators without ultrasound training detected 93% of leg clots
Scans taken under AI guidance by operators without ultrasound training identified 92.9% of proximal deep vein thromboses, with 98.0% specificity in flagging who still needed a standard ultrasound.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence refines
Seven in ten US women stay on endocrine therapy for one year
Of 401,450 US women starting adjuvant endocrine therapy after breast surgery, 69.9% had a medication possession ratio of at least 80% over the first year.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsForecasts and their record refines
Polygenic scores add most to prediction where clinical risk is already low
Across 150 diseases in 900,000 UK Biobank and FinnGen participants, polygenic scores added most in metabolic, cardiovascular, autoimmune and neurological disease, and added little for genitourinary and respiratory conditions.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayDementia new
28% of middle-aged and older Canadians know of the hearing loss-dementia link
A survey of 1,404 Canadians found that 28% were aware of the hearing loss-dementia link, and 17% of those aware were more inclined to seek hearing-loss treatment.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer new
Myelosuppression is gemcitabine's most consistent signal in FDA adverse event reports
In 18.37 million adverse event reports made to the FDA since 2014, myelosuppression was reported 3.35 to 7.74 times more often with gemcitabine regimens than with other drugs.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed
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Health todayHeart and stroke new
Top 10% by polygenic risk carry a fifth of Taiwan's atrial fibrillation
Taiwan Biobank genotypes were linked to national insurance claims for 140,000 people, and those in the top 10% by polygenic risk were 3.56 times as likely to develop atrial fibrillation.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health refines
Severe mental illness costs Norwegian men 1.5 to 19.9 life-years depending on subgroup
In a Norwegian registry cohort of 2,486,836 adults followed from 2008 to 2023, excess life-years lost from age 30 in men ranged from 1.50 for depression with non-inpatient care and university education to 19.86 for schizophrenia with inpatient care and less than high school education.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer new
Menopausal hormone therapy users had higher breast cancer incidence but lower mortality
In 78,209 women in the PLCO screening trial, ever use of menopausal hormone therapy was associated with higher breast cancer incidence (aHR 1.17) and lower breast cancer mortality (0.72).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayDementia new
Dementia mortality is higher where outdoor ultrafine particle levels are higher
In 2.1 million adults in Montreal and Toronto, each 10,000 particle/cm3 increase in outdoor ultrafine particle concentration was associated with a 22% higher rate of dementia mortality.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
Oral safiglipron lowered HbA1c as much as dapagliflozin, and more at 90 mg
In adults with type 2 diabetes, once-daily oral safiglipron lowered HbA1c at least as much as dapagliflozin, and by more at the 90 mg dose.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer refines
Under 2 mm of Gleason pattern 4 matches favourable intermediate-risk prostate cancer
Among 2499 men with Grade Group 2-4 prostate cancer, those with under 2 mm of Gleason pattern 4 had 5-year biochemical recurrence of 20%, matching favourable intermediate-risk disease.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
One in seven Danish anorexia patients became steadily more ill after diagnosis
Among 9,534 Danish patients with anorexia nervosa, one in seven became steadily more ill, with more psychiatric and physical illness in the five years after diagnosis.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health new
Infection followed hip fracture in 43% of older Danish patients with dementia
Among 100,335 Danish hip fracture patients aged 65 and over, infection within 30 days reached 43.0% in those with dementia, as compared to 18.4% in matched comparators with dementia.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer new
PSMA-guided radiotherapy did not improve failure-free survival in prostate cancer
In a phase 2 trial of 253 men, radiotherapy targeted to every lesion seen on PSMA-PET gave five-year failure-free survival of 66% against 62% for standard care.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
STEMI patients judged at high risk of shock had double the ten-year mortality
Among 1,574 Danish STEMI patients treated by primary angioplasty, those a score marked as at high risk of shock in hospital had ten-year mortality of 41% against 20%.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke confirms
US deaths recording both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest rose faster after 2014
Deaths of US adults recording both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest rose by 2.72% a year to 2014, then by 9.55% a year to 2020.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Japanese romosozumab starters had less recent heart attack or stroke than other users
Among 311,585 Japanese patients starting romosozumab between 2019 and 2023, 11.7% of men and 7.9% of women had a myocardial infarction or stroke in the prior 360 days, below the 8.9-17.6% among users of other osteoporosis drugs, and those with such a history discontinued more often.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 confirms
Overweight/obesity in German children stands at 16.1%, unchanged over two decades
Measured height and weight in a representative sample of 3,978 German children aged 4 to 17 gave an overweight and obesity prevalence of 16.1%, with obesity alone at 6.7%.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer confirms
Multi-cancer early detection blood test detected 15.4% of stage I cancers
A methylation and protein blood test identified 50.9% of cancers across 21 tumour organ types at a specificity of 98.5%, in a multi-centre case-control study of 6,352 samples.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health refines
Depression carried a 65% higher rate of new cardiometabolic disease over 15 years
Among 1858 Dutch adults followed for 15 years, lifetime major depression was associated with higher cardiometabolic disease incidence (HR 1.65), with no one symptom pattern carrying more risk than another.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer refines
England's cervical screening coverage gap by deprivation has widened to 7.4 points
Cervical screening coverage in England in 2024 ranged from 73.5% in the least deprived areas to 66.1% in the most deprived, a wider gap than that recorded twelve years earlier.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
Never starting anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation carried the highest annual costs
Among 47,427 Scots with incident atrial fibrillation, annual healthcare costs were GBP 7,288 per patient on continuous oral anticoagulation and GBP 22,751 for those never started on it.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
Weight loss in impaired glucose tolerance went with fewer deaths over 34 years
In 540 Chinese adults with impaired glucose tolerance, a weight loss of 5% or more over six years carried a hazard ratio for death of 0.67 against no weight loss.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
GLP-1 prescribing to US children aged 8-11 with obesity rose but stayed under 1%
Among 3.5 million US children aged 8 to 11 with obesity and without diabetes recorded in Epic Cosmos between 2019 and June 2026, 0.6% received a GLP-1 receptor agonist prescription, with rates highest among 11-year-olds, girls, and those with obesity-related comorbidities.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
Oral GLP-1 tablet safiglipron cut HbA1c by up to 1.45 points in type 2 diabetes
In the OUTSTAND-1 trial, once-daily safiglipron tablets lowered HbA1c by up to 1.45 percentage points more than placebo over 32 weeks in untreated type 2 diabetes.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayDementia refines
APOE e4 dementia risk is largest in European ancestry across 367,757 US adults
A study of APOE genotype against 2,632 traits and conditions in 367,757 All of Us participants found 27 associations, with dementia risk largest in those of European ancestry.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Between 15% and 49% of heart disease patients had clinically elevated cardiac anxiety
A review of 26 studies in 9,628 patients with cardiovascular disease found clinically elevated fear of cardiac sensations in 15% to 49%, varying with the questionnaire cut-off used.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 confirms
Lower education was the most consistent marker of obesity in Korean adults
Analysis of Korea's national health and nutrition survey for 2022 to 2024 found lower education the most consistent marker of obesity in adults, with income and employment less consistent.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
Deaths after CPR in US hospitals remained above pre-pandemic levels through 2022
Among 612,930 weighted US hospitalisations with CPR after in-hospital cardiac arrest, 67.8% of patients died, and adjusted odds of death in 2021 were 1.26x those in 2016.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayDementia confirms
Lithium use was associated with 37% lower dementia risk in pooled cohort studies
A meta-analysis of 23 studies pooled four cohort studies to a hazard ratio of 0.63 for dementia among lithium users, although the authors state that causality is not established.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Black patients were 4% of enrolment in the defining hypertrophic cardiomyopathy trials
Across 13 of the trials that define current treatment of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, Black patients were 3.98% of Black and White participants, as compared to 16.5% of US adults.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Kidney disease progressed less often on a GLP-1 drug plus SGLT2 inhibitor
Among 32,448 matched adults with chronic kidney disease, those adding a GLP-1 drug to an SGLT2 inhibitor had 0.70 times the rate of kidney disease progression over a median year.
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Health todayMental health new
One gene variant more than triples serious mental illness risk in Colombia
Exome sequencing of 21,958 cases and 19,826 controls in a Colombian founder population identified seven genes associated with serious mental illness, one variant raising risk more than threefold.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 confirms
Swiss children with obesity from poorer areas arrive with worse cardiometabolic risk
Among 886 children treated for obesity in Bern, ten points higher on the neighbourhood socioeconomic index was associated with lower obesity severity and lower odds of insulin resistance (OR 0.80).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
New heart failure was slightly less common on tirzepatide than semaglutide
Among 424,269 matched pairs of patients with obesity in the TriNetX records, one-year new-onset heart failure was 1.0% on tirzepatide and 1.3% on semaglutide.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayDementia new
28% of middle-aged and older Canadians know of the hearing loss-dementia link
A survey of 1,404 Canadians found that 28% were aware of the hearing loss-dementia link, and 17% of those aware were more inclined to seek hearing-loss treatment.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer new
Myelosuppression is gemcitabine's most consistent signal in FDA adverse event reports
In 18.37 million adverse event reports made to the FDA since 2014, myelosuppression was reported 3.35 to 7.74 times more often with gemcitabine regimens than with other drugs.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed
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Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Higher HPV antibody levels are associated with greater vaccine efficacy across types
A Bayesian meta-analysis of randomised HPV vaccine trials found higher type-specific antibody levels associated with greater efficacy against infection and CIN2+, with the level associated with protection differing by type.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence new
Most adults starting semaglutide or tirzepatide did not continue for a year
Among 743,153 US adults starting semaglutide or tirzepatide for obesity in 2024, 29.9% and 35.9% respectively were still being prescribed the drug at 12 months.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep new
Weight-management texts did not reduce weight in postpartum women over 12 months
Among 892 postpartum women with a BMI of 25 or more, 12 months of automated weight-management texts made no difference to weight against texts on child health (-0.1 kg).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
Nicotine pouch take-up is higher among US adults using other tobacco products
In the PATH study of 24,640 US adults, those using smokeless tobacco only took up oral nicotine pouches at 42.4 times the rate of adults using no other tobacco product.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep refines
Swapping sleep for activity relates to mortality differently in short sleepers
Among UK Biobank adults meeting sleep duration guidelines, moving 30 minutes from sleep to moderate or vigorous activity carried an all-cause mortality hazard ratio of 0.80.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics refines
Dutch infant vaccination uptake fell during the pandemic and again after it
Children in the Netherlands due their first diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-polio dose after the pandemic had a fifth the odds of vaccination by six months of their pre-pandemic siblings.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Modelled early pandemic costs rise more from too little control than from too much
In models fitted to first-year COVID-19 cases in 110 countries, controlling transmission five points below the cost-optimal level carried excess costs above 400%, against 10-80% five points above.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
Real cigarette prices rose 2.9% a year across 195 countries
Inflation-adjusted cigarette prices across 195 countries rose 2.9% a year between 2008 and 2024, with over a fifth of nominal prices unchanged between successive periods.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence confirms
Older adults starting GLP-1 drugs were younger and heavier than other initiators
Among 58,754 adults aged 65 and over with type 2 diabetes, mean BMI at initiation was 33.8 for GLP-1 drugs as compared to 29.7 for SGLT2 inhibitors.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
RSV and rhinovirus caused more Brazilian respiratory deaths in 2026 than influenza
Brazilian surveillance over 35 weeks of 2026 recorded more severe respiratory deaths from RSV and rhinovirus than from influenza, concentrated in children under 2 and those aged 65 and over.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
An estimated 1.32% of US adults had hepatitis C in 2017-2020
An estimated 1.32% of US adults, or 3.33 million people, had hepatitis C over 2017-2020, on a model combining six surveillance, claims and Medicaid sources.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics confirms
VAERS reports after the 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine were consistent with earlier seasons
A CDC review of 9856 US VAERS reports following the 2024-2025 JN.1-based COVID-19 vaccine found 8.9% serious, eight Guillain-Barre and six myocarditis or myopericarditis cases meeting case definitions, with reporting rates below background rates for both.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
One in five Australian paediatricians surveyed provides vaping cessation support
Of 90 paediatricians and registrars surveyed across Australia in 2023, over two-thirds routinely advised adolescents against vaping, but only one in five provided cessation support.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics confirms
Digital reminders raised child vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries
A meta-analysis of 22 randomised trials in low- and middle-income countries found reminders raised the share of children vaccinated relative to usual care (RR 1.27), though trial results varied widely.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection confirms
Two ways of asking about loneliness disagree over graduates in England
Among 135,725 adult volunteers in England, university education was associated with higher loneliness on a three-question scale but with lower loneliness when people were asked directly.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use confirms
Norway's ban on all alcohol advertising has survived 50 years of legal challenge
A review of Norwegian government documents, parliamentary papers and court rulings traces the alcohol marketing ban in force since 1975, which has adapted to alcohol-free beers and social media.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping refines
Seven in ten Korean heated tobacco and cigarette users moved to cigarettes
Among 7.26 million Korean adults screened between 2019 and 2023, users of heated tobacco or e-cigarettes were more likely to quit cigarettes, but also more likely to start smoking again.
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Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence new
Fewer than one in five US stroke and TIA patients filled a P2Y12 inhibitor
Among 45,763 US adults with a first ischaemic stroke or TIA, 18.9% filled a P2Y12 inhibitor within 30 days, and half of clopidogrel initiators had stopped filling by 180 days.
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Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence refines
Tirzepatide initiators stayed on treatment longer than semaglutide initiators
In propensity-matched US claims data on adults with type 2 diabetes, 12-month adherence was 60% for tirzepatide initiators against 45% for semaglutide initiators among GLP-1-naive patients, with persistence of 62% against 47%.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use new
One in nine older US cannabis users meets criteria for cannabis use disorder
In a national US survey, 8.9% of adults aged 65 and over had used cannabis in the past year, and 11.4% of those met criteria for cannabis use disorder.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection refines
Loneliness predicts psychological distress better than other social measures
In a 29-country European survey of 48,377 respondents, loneliness was the strongest social predictor of psychological distress, and the other social measures together added 0.006 to the AUC.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics refines
Modelling puts maternal deaths 68,489 above pre-pandemic trends over 2020 to 2023
Models fitted to WHO/UN estimates for 2000 to 2019 put maternal deaths for 2020 to 2023 at 68,489 above the projected path, with excess detectable in 113 of 195 countries.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection new
Carers who repeatedly stop and restart unpaid care are more likely to smoke
In the UK Household Longitudinal Study, adults repeatedly moving in and out of unpaid caring had higher odds of smoking (OR 1.67) and lower odds of physical inactivity (OR 0.65).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping confirms
Brief tobacco intervention lowered risk scores in Indian guards, fading by day 90
In a randomised trial among 86 male security personnel at a North Indian tertiary hospital, a WHO ASSIST-linked brief intervention reduced tobacco risk scores relative to general health information, with a group-by-time effect size of 0.34 and dependence differences weakening by day 90.
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Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Offering HPV vaccine at 9-10 brought median series completion to 12.2 years
In a cluster-randomised trial in 31 US paediatric practices, offering HPV vaccination at ages 9-10 rather than 11-12 brought median age at series completion forward from 13.3 to 12.2 years.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence refines
Seven in ten US women stay on endocrine therapy for one year
Of 401,450 US women starting adjuvant endocrine therapy after breast surgery, 69.9% had a medication possession ratio of at least 80% over the first year.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed
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Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access new
Twelve-hour emergency stays carry 1.95 times the hospitalisation risk over two years
Among 3,347,008 working-age adults attending emergency departments in England, stays of 12 hours or more carried 1.95 times the hospitalisation risk over two years, compared with stays under two hours.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Modelled extra HPV doses for women with HIV averted cervical cancer
A Markov model of 13 African countries found that extra HPV doses for women living with HIV averted cervical cancer beyond routine vaccination at 14, at added programme cost.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Machine learning screen finds 17 dietary polyphenols that bind Salmonella proteins
A graph neural network screened over 7,000 plant compounds, and laboratory binding assays confirmed that 17 dietary polyphenols attach to two proteins Salmonella uses to coordinate its virulence.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Treating drug-resistant TB contacts up to age 45 was modelled as cost-effective
A model of 189 countries found that offering preventive treatment to household contacts of drug-resistant tuberculosis up to age 45, rather than only under-15s, was cost-effective in 160 countries.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsForecasts and their record new
Nigeria's HPV programme is modelled to avert 1.82 million cervical cancers
Continuing to vaccinate Nigerian girls aged 9 to 14 is projected to avert 1.82 million cervical cancer cases to 2100, with 945,000 remaining in women already too old.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Tuberculosis vaccine VPM1002 is modelled as stronger against disease outside the lungs
A dynamic model of tuberculosis in India estimated the VPM1002 vaccine to be 42.9% effective against disease outside the lungs and 14.0% against lung disease, both intervals including no effect.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Sotagliflozin after worsening heart failure is modelled at $75,510 per QALY gained
A lifetime microsimulation of patients with type 2 diabetes after worsening heart failure put sotagliflozin at $75,510 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, at an assumed net cost of $434 a month.
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Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
A blood protein score of cellular ageing predicted death in UK Biobank
A blood protein score of cellular ageing, built in UK Biobank, predicted death and later dementia, COPD, heart attack and stroke, and changed over 18 months with exercise.
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Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access confirms
Adult mortality is 26% higher for those whose fathers held lower-ranked jobs
A meta-analysis of 102 cohort studies covering about 8.5 million people in 24 countries found adult all-cause mortality 26% higher for those whose fathers held lower-ranked occupations.
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Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Language models identified overdose deaths from New York investigators' written reports
Reading the reports New York City death investigators write on each case, the better of two language models identified suspected overdose deaths with 92% sensitivity and 88% positive predictive value.
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Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Modelled depression screening of KwaZulu-Natal sex workers averts HIV at $490 per QALY
A transmission model for KwaZulu-Natal found depression screening with behavioural treatment most cost-effective among female sex workers, at $350 per HIV infection averted and $490 per QALY gained.
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Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Modelled hepatitis B cure is cost-effective under USD46,642 a course in the US
A Markov model estimated that a hepatitis B cure regimen working in 30% of patients would be cost-effective at a one-off price below USD46,642 in the US.
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Data, models and systemsRevisions and new sources new
Electronic death notification in Zambia lifted completeness from 11.9% to 17.4%
An electronic version of Zambia's death notification form, used in burial offices across four provinces, cut the mean reporting delay from six days to three.
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Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Language models identified in-hospital cardiac arrests better than ICD codes
On a hand-picked set of notes, a trained language model flagged encounters for in-hospital cardiac arrest of which 88% were genuine, against 68% for an ICD-code algorithm.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsForecasts and their record refines
Pandemic excess deaths were partly offset by a death deficit in 2024 and 2025
Across 38 countries with reliable death registration, excess deaths of 1.99-2.88 million in 2020-2023 were followed by a deficit of 0.39-1.08 million in 2024-2025.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
AI-guided ultrasound by operators without ultrasound training detected 93% of leg clots
Scans taken under AI guidance by operators without ultrasound training identified 92.9% of proximal deep vein thromboses, with 98.0% specificity in flagging who still needed a standard ultrasound.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsForecasts and their record refines
Polygenic scores add most to prediction where clinical risk is already low
Across 150 diseases in 900,000 UK Biobank and FinnGen participants, polygenic scores added most in metabolic, cardiovascular, autoimmune and neurological disease, and added little for genitourinary and respiratory conditions.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed
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Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself refines
Immune gene HLA-DRB1*04 is commoner in centenarians, DRB1*01:01 in Alzheimer's patients
Fine-mapping of HLA class II immune genes in 6,053 people found DRB1*04 subtypes commoner in 443 cognitively healthy centenarians, and DRB1*01:01 commoner in the 2,391 Alzheimer's patients.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate refines
Summer heat in Italy raises deaths from nervous system and mental illness
Across 7,864 Italian municipalities over 20 summers, heat-attributable fractions were highest for nervous system diseases at 14.93% and mental and behavioural disorders at 14.47%.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance new
Older patients on a virtual ward reported fewer depressive symptoms than inpatients
Among 100 patients aged 70 and over, 72% of hospital inpatients screened positive for depressive symptoms as compared to 30% of those cared for on a virtual ward.
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Tomorrow's worldInnovation in treatment new
Oral orforglipron is tested for cardiovascular safety against insulin in type 2 diabetes
A phase 3 trial randomised 2749 adults with type 2 diabetes and heart or kidney disease to oral orforglipron or insulin glargine, and followed them for a median two years.
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Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance refines
Systolic pressure was 5.8 mmHg lower with apps and wearables after stroke
Across 29 studies in 8,389 stroke and transient ischaemic attack survivors, systolic blood pressure was 5.8 mmHg lower with mobile applications or wearables, though prediction intervals crossed the null.
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Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself refines
Proteomic organ clocks tracked 16-year mortality less closely than epigenetic age
Accelerated liver, immune and heart proteomic ageing carried hazard ratios of 1.38 to 1.43 per standard deviation for 16-year mortality, below those for epigenetic age and cognition.
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Tomorrow's worldA changing climate new
Daily cancer deaths in Japan were 0.88% higher per 10 micrograms/m3 of PM2.5
A 10 microgram per cubic metre rise in PM2.5 was associated with 0.88% more cancer deaths in Japan, though the association did not survive adjustment for NO2 or SO2.
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Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself new
Uncertainty in a biological age estimate is itself associated with mortality
In over 450,000 UK Biobank participants, the uncertainty of a biological age estimate was associated with mortality, multimorbidity and loss of healthspan independently of the age gap itself.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed