COIOS — International risk research catalyst focused on medical advances, behavioural insights and data science
- 48 posts this week
- 23 drivers followed
- 2 trackers refreshed
- Releases this week
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Official figures
Where the evidence stands
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Diet, exercise and sleep
What people eat and how much they move, what the measured evidence says each does to how long they live, and what has been shown to change either.
2 this week -
Innovation in treatment
Treatments that did not exist before — drugs, operations, devices — and whether they reach the people who would benefit.
1 this week -
Cancer
Which cancers are rising and which falling, what screening and new tests find earlier, what treatment has done to survival.
5 this week -
Revisions and new sources6 this week
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What linked data reveals
What linked registries are making it possible to know about whole populations
7 this week -
Obesity, diabetes and GLP-1
Are obesity and diabetes still rising, understanding behavioural change and public policy, what difference do GLP-1 and friends make.
9 this week -
Medicine at a distance
What wearables, remote monitoring and care at home add to how health is measured and delivered, and whether it shows in outcomes.
1 this week -
Smoking and vaping
How far smoking has fallen and how many deaths it still causes, what vaping is doing to the people who take it up, and what generational bans will show.
2 this week -
Heart and stroke
Whether deaths from heart disease and stroke have stopped falling, what is found earlier, what treatment and prevention now do, and what the deaths say.
12 this week -
Alcohol and drug use
What is happening to deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide, whether they move together, and how much of it is behaviour and how much circumstance.
3 this week -
AI in medicine
Whether machine learning predicts, detects and decides better than the tools we have, and whether that has yet changed an outcome for a population.
4 this week -
Infection and pandemics
Infectious disease and pandemics: understanding both the risks and how well prepared we are
4 this week -
A changing climate
How air pollution, heat and cold affect how long people live, how the attribution is made, and how the balance is changing.
2 this week -
Forecasts and their record
How the numbers are made, how much they revise their own past, and how well mortality can be forecast — and by whom.
3 this week -
Adherence and persistence4 this week
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Mental health5 this week
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Social connection
How isolation and loneliness shorten lives, proving the causal relationship and what can be done.
2 this week -
Value in health
What a treatment, programme or policy is worth against what it costs, and how far the models that decide it can be trusted.
4 this week -
Dementia
Whether dementia is becoming more or less common, what is found earlier and why that clouds the count, what treatment and prevention now do, and what the deaths say.
3 this week -
Slowing ageing itself
Whether anything yet slows ageing itself, rather than treating one disease at a time, and how we would know if it did.
3 this week -
Frailty and multimorbidity
Whether the years added after 85 are healthy ones, how frailty and multiple conditions are measured, and where the limits of the data lie.
1 this week -
Changing behaviour at scale
What moves a population's behaviour — price, defaults, availability, incentives, information — and what the evidence on vaccination, screening and adherence says about which of them work.
1 this week -
Health funding and inequalities
Whether inequalities in health and length of life are widening, where, and what is happening to health at working ages.
7 this week
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Most Korean dual users of heated tobacco and cigarettes reverted to cigarettes alone
In 7,260,125 Korean adults screened three times between 2019 and 2023, heated tobacco and e-cigarette use was associated with higher odds of cigarette cessation but also of initiation and relapse, and with lower odds of stopping all tobacco.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Orforglipron against insulin glargine in the ACHIEVE-4 cardiovascular safety trial
ACHIEVE-4 randomised 2749 adults with type 2 diabetes, overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular or kidney disease to oral orforglipron or insulin glargine, testing non-inferiority for four-component major adverse cardiovascular events over a median two years.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Sotagliflozin after worsening heart failure modelled at $75,510 per QALY gained
A lifetime microsimulation built on SOLOIST-WHF trial effects put sotagliflozin at $75,510 per quality-adjusted life-year gained in patients with type 2 diabetes and recent worsening heart failure, at an assumed net cost of $434 a month.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
England's cervical screening deprivation gap widened from 4.9 to 7.4 points
Linking 2024 general-practice cervical screening coverage in England to area deprivation gave 73.5% coverage in the most affluent areas against 66.1% in the most deprived, a 7.4 percentage point gap compared with 4.9 points in 2012, with overall coverage lower than a decade ago.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Scottish AF patients never started on anticoagulants had three times the annual costs
In 47,427 Scots with incident atrial fibrillation and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2 or more, continuous oral anticoagulation was associated with annual healthcare costs of GBP 7,288 per patient against GBP 22,751 for those never started.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
England's cervical screening deprivation gap widened from 4.9 to 7.4 points
Linking 2024 general-practice cervical screening coverage in England to area deprivation gave 73.5% coverage in the most affluent areas against 66.1% in the most deprived, a 7.4 percentage point gap compared with 4.9 points in 2012, with overall coverage lower than a decade ago.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Weight loss after a prediabetes diagnosis tracked lower mortality 34 years later
In 540 Chinese adults with impaired glucose tolerance followed for 34 years, those losing at least 5% of body weight during the first six years had a hazard ratio of 0.67 for all-cause death and 0.56 for cardiovascular death compared with those who lost none.
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Item confirms peer-reviewed
Childhood disadvantage carried a 26% higher rate of adult all-cause mortality
A meta-analysis of 102 cohort studies covering about 8.5 million people in 24 countries found adult all-cause mortality 26% higher for those whose fathers held the lowest-ranked occupations, with a relative index of inequality of 2.33 for childhood economic circumstances.
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Item new peer-reviewed
GLP-1 prescribing to US children aged 8-11 with obesity rose but stayed under 1%
Among 3.5 million US children aged 8 to 11 with obesity and without diabetes recorded in Epic Cosmos between 2019 and June 2026, 0.6% received a GLP-1 receptor agonist prescription, with rates highest among 11-year-olds, girls, and those with obesity-related comorbidities.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Oral GLP-1 agonist safiglipron cut HbA1c by up to 1.45 points in type 2 diabetes
In the OUTSTAND-1 randomised placebo-controlled trial, the once-daily oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist safiglipron reduced HbA1c by up to 1.45 percentage points over 32 weeks in people with type 2 diabetes not taking glucose-lowering medication, with modest effects on body weight.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Most Korean dual users of heated tobacco and cigarettes reverted to cigarettes alone
In 7,260,125 Korean adults screened three times between 2019 and 2023, heated tobacco and e-cigarette use was associated with higher odds of cigarette cessation but also of initiation and relapse, and with lower odds of stopping all tobacco.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Half of clopidogrel initiators after stroke stopped filling by 180 days in US claims
In 45 763 US adults with a first coded ischaemic stroke or TIA, 18.9% filled a P2Y12 inhibitor within 30 days, and among initiators persistence at 180 days was 50.5% for clopidogrel against 59.6% for ticagrelor, with switching in 2.9%.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Tirzepatide initiators stayed on treatment longer than semaglutide initiators
In propensity-matched US claims data on adults with type 2 diabetes, 12-month adherence was 60% for tirzepatide initiators against 45% for semaglutide initiators among GLP-1-naive patients, with persistence of 62% against 47%.
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Item new peer-reviewed
One in nine older US cannabis users meets criteria for cannabis use disorder
In the 2021-2024 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 8.9% of US adults aged 65 and over had used cannabis in the past year, and 11.4% of those met DSM-5 criteria for cannabis use disorder, 76.0% of them at mild severity.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Loneliness carries most of the social signal for psychological distress
Across 48,377 respondents in 29 European countries and prospective US Health and Retirement Study waves, loneliness had the largest association with psychological distress of the social measures tested, with all other social variables adding a cross-validated AUC gain of only 0.006.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Sotagliflozin after worsening heart failure modelled at $75,510 per QALY gained
A lifetime microsimulation built on SOLOIST-WHF trial effects put sotagliflozin at $75,510 per quality-adjusted life-year gained in patients with type 2 diabetes and recent worsening heart failure, at an assumed net cost of $434 a month.
-
Item refines peer-reviewed
Scottish AF patients never started on anticoagulants had three times the annual costs
In 47,427 Scots with incident atrial fibrillation and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2 or more, continuous oral anticoagulation was associated with annual healthcare costs of GBP 7,288 per patient against GBP 22,751 for those never started.
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Item new peer-reviewed
A deep-learning senescence proteomic score predicted mortality and moved with exercise
A senescence-associated secretory phenotype score, built from UK Biobank plasma proteomics with a guided autoencoder-transformer model, independently predicted mortality and incident dementia, COPD, myocardial infarction and stroke, and changed over 18 months in a multimodal exercise trial.
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Item new peer-reviewed
An LLM identified NYC overdose deaths from investigator narratives with 92% sensitivity
Two language models trained on 9,263 New York City death investigation narratives from 2022-2023 identified suspected overdose deaths with 92% sensitivity and 88% positive predictive value, outperforming the medical examiner's existing surveillance tool and logistic regression.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Modelled depression screening in KwaZulu-Natal averted HIV infections at $480 per QALY
A compartmental transmission model for KwaZulu-Natal estimated that screening and behavioural treatment for major depressive disorder would avert HIV infections at $340 per infection and $480 per QALY gained, with combined alcohol and depression strategies averting 179,560 infections by 2030.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Orforglipron against insulin glargine in the ACHIEVE-4 cardiovascular safety trial
ACHIEVE-4 randomised 2749 adults with type 2 diabetes, overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular or kidney disease to oral orforglipron or insulin glargine, testing non-inferiority for four-component major adverse cardiovascular events over a median two years.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Digital interventions after stroke were linked to 5.8 mmHg lower systolic pressure
A meta-analysis of 29 studies and 8,389 stroke or TIA survivors found digital health interventions associated with a pooled 5.8 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure (95% CI -9.9 to -1.6), with prediction intervals crossing the null and no consistent effect on lipids or weight.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Proteomic organ clocks tracked 16-year mortality slightly less than epigenetic age
In the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936, accelerated liver, immune and heart proteomic ages were associated with 16-year mortality at hazard ratios of 1.38-1.43 per standard deviation, against 1.44-1.62 for GrimAge2, brain volume, respiratory function and cognition.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Daily cancer deaths in Japan rose 0.88% per 10 micrograms per cubic metre of PM2.5
A case-crossover study of daily deaths across all 47 Japanese prefectures from 2013 to 2022 found a 0.88% rise in all-cancer mortality per 10 micrograms per cubic metre of PM2.5 at lag 0-2 days, an association that did not survive adjustment for NO2 or SO2.
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Item new preprint
Uncertainty in a biological age estimate predicts mortality independently of the age gap
A probabilistic framework applied to more than 450,000 UK Biobank participants derived both a biological age gap and a biological age uncertainty from the width of predicted-age distributions, with uncertainty only weakly correlated with the gap and independently associated with mortality.
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Releases this week
Next seven days: ONS weekly deaths (Wed 7); Eurostat Young people - health drivers (Wed 7); UKHSA flu and COVID-19 surveillance (Thu 8); UKHSA all-cause mortality surveillance (Thu 8); Eurostat Mental health and related issues (Fri 9). Full calendar