COIOS — International risk research catalyst focused on medical advances, behavioural insights and data science
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- Releases this week
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Official figures
Where the evidence stands
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Revisions and new sources
What the figures are built from, what is newly available, and how much the numbers move when they are revised.
5 this week -
Innovation in treatment
Treatments that did not exist before — drugs, operations, devices — and whether they reach the people who would benefit.
2 this week -
Cancer
Which cancers are rising and which falling, what screening and new tests find earlier, what treatment has done to survival.
7 this week -
Diet, exercise and sleep
What people eat and how much they move, what the measured evidence says each does to how long they live, and what has been shown to change either.
None this week -
Smoking and vaping
How far smoking has fallen and how many deaths it still causes, what vaping is doing to the people who take it up, and what generational bans will show.
2 this week -
Medicine at a distance
What wearables, remote monitoring and care at home add to how health is measured and delivered, and whether it shows in outcomes.
1 this week -
Obesity, diabetes and GLP-1
Are obesity and diabetes still rising, understanding behavioural change and public policy, what difference do GLP-1 and friends make.
10 this week -
What linked data reveals
What linked registries are making it possible to know about whole populations
7 this week -
AI in medicine
Whether machine learning predicts, detects and decides better than the tools we have, and whether that has yet changed an outcome for a population.
4 this week -
Infection and pandemics
Infectious disease and pandemics: understanding both the risks and how well prepared we are
6 this week -
Heart and stroke
Whether deaths from heart disease and stroke have stopped falling, what is found earlier, what treatment and prevention now do, and what the deaths say.
12 this week -
Alcohol and drug use
What is happening to deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide, whether they move together, and how much of it is behaviour and how much circumstance.
3 this week -
Forecasts and their record
How the numbers are made, how much they revise their own past, and how well mortality can be forecast — and by whom.
3 this week -
A changing climate
How air pollution, heat and cold affect how long people live, how the attribution is made, and how the balance is changing.
1 this week -
Mental health
What mental illness costs in lives — in suicide, in the life expectancy gap in severe mental illness, and in the physical disease that follows it.
6 this week -
Adherence and persistence
Whether a treatment is actually taken, for how long, and what changes either.
4 this week -
Value in health
What a treatment, programme or policy is worth against what it costs, and how far the models that decide it can be trusted.
5 this week -
Dementia
Whether dementia is becoming more or less common, what is found earlier and why that clouds the count, what treatment and prevention now do, and what the deaths say.
3 this week -
Social connection
How isolation and loneliness shorten lives, proving the causal relationship and what can be done.
3 this week -
Slowing ageing itself
Whether anything yet slows ageing itself, rather than treating one disease at a time, and how we would know if it did.
3 this week -
Frailty and multimorbidity
Whether the years added after 85 are healthy ones, how frailty and multiple conditions are measured, and where the limits of the data lie.
1 this week -
Changing behaviour at scale
What moves a population's behaviour — price, defaults, availability, incentives, information — and what the evidence on vaccination, screening and adherence says about which of them work.
2 this week -
Health funding and inequalities
Whether inequalities in health and length of life are widening, where, and what is happening to health at working ages.
7 this week
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Item new Preprint · not peer-reviewed
Preventive treatment to age 45 for drug-resistant TB contacts modelled as cost-effective
A decision-analytic model across 189 countries found that extending levofloxacin preventive treatment for contacts of MDR/RR tuberculosis from under-15s to age 45 was cost-effective at 30% of GDP per capita in 160 countries and cost-saving in 46.
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Item confirms Preprint · not peer-reviewed
German child overweight and obesity prevalence is 16.1% and stable over two decades
Measured height and weight in 3,978 representative German children aged 4 to 17 in 2023 to 2025 gave an overweight and obesity prevalence of 16.1% and an obesity prevalence of 6.7%, which the authors report as stable against waves dating back to 2005.
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Item confirms Peer-reviewed
Multi-cancer blood test detected 15.4% of stage I cancers at 98.5% specificity
A methylation and protein multi-cancer early detection blood test, assessed in a prospectively collected case-control study of 6,352 samples across 21 tumour types, had overall sensitivity of 50.9% at 98.5% specificity, rising from 15.4% at stage I to 85.5% at stage IV.
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Item confirms Peer-reviewed
Digital reminders raised child vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries
A meta-analysis of 22 randomised trials covering 68,664 participants found digital reminders raised childhood immunisation coverage in low- and middle-income countries (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.49), and more so with education (RR 1.72), with substantial heterogeneity.
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Item new Preprint · not peer-reviewed
Nigeria's adolescent HPV programme is modelled to avert 1.82m cervical cancers by 2100
An agent-based microsimulation calibrated to Nigeria projects that continuing single-dose adolescent HPV vaccination averts 1.82 million cervical cancer cases over 2025 to 2100, a 53% reduction, while 945,000 residual cases fall in women already beyond target age.
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Item confirms Preprint · not peer-reviewed
German child overweight and obesity prevalence is 16.1% and stable over two decades
Measured height and weight in 3,978 representative German children aged 4 to 17 in 2023 to 2025 gave an overweight and obesity prevalence of 16.1% and an obesity prevalence of 6.7%, which the authors report as stable against waves dating back to 2005.
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Item confirms Peer-reviewed
Multi-cancer blood test detected 15.4% of stage I cancers at 98.5% specificity
A methylation and protein multi-cancer early detection blood test, assessed in a prospectively collected case-control study of 6,352 samples across 21 tumour types, had overall sensitivity of 50.9% at 98.5% specificity, rising from 15.4% at stage I to 85.5% at stage IV.
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Item refines Peer-reviewed
Depression was associated with 65% higher cardiometabolic disease incidence at 15 years
In 1858 Dutch adults followed for 15 years, lifetime major depressive disorder was associated with a 65% higher rate of incident cardiometabolic disease (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.11), with comparable effect sizes across atypical, anhedonic and typical symptom profiles.
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Item refines Peer-reviewed
England's cervical screening deprivation gap widened from 4.9 to 7.4 points
Linking 2024 general-practice cervical screening coverage in England to area deprivation gave 73.5% coverage in the most affluent areas against 66.1% in the most deprived, a 7.4 percentage point gap compared with 4.9 points in 2012, with overall coverage lower than a decade ago.
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Item refines Peer-reviewed
Weight loss after a prediabetes diagnosis tracked lower mortality 34 years later
In 540 Chinese adults with impaired glucose tolerance followed for 34 years, those losing at least 5% of body weight during the first six years had a hazard ratio of 0.67 for all-cause death and 0.56 for cardiovascular death compared with those who lost none.
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Item confirms Peer-reviewed
Two loneliness scales agree on most correlates in 135,725 volunteers, not on education
A cross-sectional analysis of 135,725 adult volunteers in England found younger age, being single, unemployed or disabled associated with higher loneliness on both scales, while university education was associated with higher loneliness on UCLA but lower on the ONS direct measure.
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Item confirms Peer-reviewed
Norway's total alcohol advertising ban has held for 50 years through legal challenges
A review of Norwegian government documents, parliamentary debate and court rulings traces the comprehensive alcohol marketing ban in force since July 1975, finding it has withstood repeated legal challenge and been extended to alcohol-free beers and social media.
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Item refines Peer-reviewed
Most Korean dual users of heated tobacco and cigarettes reverted to cigarettes alone
In 7,260,125 Korean adults screened three times between 2019 and 2023, heated tobacco and e-cigarette use was associated with higher odds of cigarette cessation but also of initiation and relapse, and with lower odds of stopping all tobacco.
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Item new Peer-reviewed
Half of clopidogrel initiators after stroke stopped filling by 180 days in US claims
In 45 763 US adults with a first coded ischaemic stroke or TIA, 18.9% filled a P2Y12 inhibitor within 30 days, and among initiators persistence at 180 days was 50.5% for clopidogrel against 59.6% for ticagrelor, with switching in 2.9%.
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Item refines Peer-reviewed
Tirzepatide initiators stayed on treatment longer than semaglutide initiators
In propensity-matched US claims data on adults with type 2 diabetes, 12-month adherence was 60% for tirzepatide initiators against 45% for semaglutide initiators among GLP-1-naive patients, with persistence of 62% against 47%.
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Item new Preprint · not peer-reviewed
Preventive treatment to age 45 for drug-resistant TB contacts modelled as cost-effective
A decision-analytic model across 189 countries found that extending levofloxacin preventive treatment for contacts of MDR/RR tuberculosis from under-15s to age 45 was cost-effective at 30% of GDP per capita in 160 countries and cost-saving in 46.
-
Item new Preprint · not peer-reviewed
Nigeria's adolescent HPV programme is modelled to avert 1.82m cervical cancers by 2100
An agent-based microsimulation calibrated to Nigeria projects that continuing single-dose adolescent HPV vaccination averts 1.82 million cervical cancer cases over 2025 to 2100, a 53% reduction, while 945,000 residual cases fall in women already beyond target age.
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Item new Preprint · not peer-reviewed
Modelled VPM1002 effectiveness in India is 42.9% extrapulmonary and 14.0% pulmonary
A 1,152-compartment model of tuberculosis in India, resolving pulmonary and extrapulmonary disease separately, estimated that three doses of VPM1002 per million targeted would avert 682 deaths and 9,463 DALYs under 10-year protection, at US$329 per DALY averted.
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Item new Peer-reviewed
Sotagliflozin after worsening heart failure modelled at $75,510 per QALY gained
A lifetime microsimulation built on SOLOIST-WHF trial effects put sotagliflozin at $75,510 per quality-adjusted life-year gained in patients with type 2 diabetes and recent worsening heart failure, at an assumed net cost of $434 a month.
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Item refines Peer-reviewed
Scottish AF patients never started on anticoagulants had three times the annual costs
In 47,427 Scots with incident atrial fibrillation and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2 or more, continuous oral anticoagulation was associated with annual healthcare costs of GBP 7,288 per patient against GBP 22,751 for those never started.
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Item confirms Peer-reviewed
Digital reminders raised child vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries
A meta-analysis of 22 randomised trials covering 68,664 participants found digital reminders raised childhood immunisation coverage in low- and middle-income countries (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.49), and more so with education (RR 1.72), with substantial heterogeneity.
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Item new Peer-reviewed
Orforglipron against insulin glargine in the ACHIEVE-4 cardiovascular safety trial
ACHIEVE-4 randomised 2749 adults with type 2 diabetes, overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular or kidney disease to oral orforglipron or insulin glargine, testing non-inferiority for four-component major adverse cardiovascular events over a median two years.
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Item refines Peer-reviewed
Digital interventions after stroke were linked to 5.8 mmHg lower systolic pressure
A meta-analysis of 29 studies and 8,389 stroke or TIA survivors found digital health interventions associated with a pooled 5.8 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure (95% CI -9.9 to -1.6), with prediction intervals crossing the null and no consistent effect on lipids or weight.
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Item refines Peer-reviewed
Proteomic organ clocks tracked 16-year mortality slightly less than epigenetic age
In the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936, accelerated liver, immune and heart proteomic ages were associated with 16-year mortality at hazard ratios of 1.38-1.43 per standard deviation, against 1.44-1.62 for GrimAge2, brain volume, respiratory function and cognition.
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Item new Peer-reviewed
Daily cancer deaths in Japan rose 0.88% per 10 micrograms per cubic metre of PM2.5
A case-crossover study of daily deaths across all 47 Japanese prefectures from 2013 to 2022 found a 0.88% rise in all-cancer mortality per 10 micrograms per cubic metre of PM2.5 at lag 0-2 days, an association that did not survive adjustment for NO2 or SO2.
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Releases this week
Next seven days: Sundhedsdatastyrelsen cancer survival, in Danish (Mon 5); ONS weekly deaths (Wed 7); Eurostat Young people - health drivers (Wed 7); UKHSA flu and COVID-19 surveillance (Thu 8); UKHSA all-cause mortality surveillance (Thu 8); and 2 more. Full calendar