COIOS — International risk research catalyst focused on medical advances, behavioural insights and data science
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Official figures
Where the evidence stands
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building mixedCancer
Which cancers are rising and which falling, what screening and new tests find earlier, what treatment has done to survival.
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building strengtheningInnovation in treatment
Treatments that did not exist before — drugs, operations, devices — and whether they reach the people who would benefit.
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building mixedRevisions and new sources
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established mixedDiet, exercise and sleep
What people eat and how much they move, what the measured evidence says each does to how long they live, and what has been shown to change either.
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building strengtheningObesity, diabetes and GLP-1
Are obesity and diabetes still rising, understanding behavioural change and public policy, what difference do GLP-1 and friends make.
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emerging mixedMedicine at a distance
What wearables, remote monitoring and care at home add to how health is measured and delivered, and whether it shows in outcomes.
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building strengtheningWhat linked data reveals
What linked registries are making it possible to know about whole populations
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established mixedSmoking and vaping
How far smoking has fallen and how many deaths it still causes, what vaping is doing to the people who take it up, and what generational bans will show.
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established mixedAlcohol and drug use
What is happening to deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide, whether they move together, and how much of it is behaviour and how much circumstance.
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emerging strengtheningAI in medicine
Whether machine learning predicts, detects and decides better than the tools we have, and whether that has yet changed an outcome for a population.
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established steadyInfection and pandemics
Infectious disease and pandemics: understanding both the risks and how well prepared we are
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building mixedHeart and stroke
Whether deaths from heart disease and stroke have stopped falling, what is found earlier, what treatment and prevention now do, and what the deaths say.
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building mixedAdherence and persistenceNo papers yet
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established mixedMental health
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building mixedForecasts and their record
How the numbers are made, how much they revise their own past, and how well mortality can be forecast — and by whom.
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established strengtheningA changing climate
How air pollution, heat and cold affect how long people live, how the attribution is made, and how the balance is changing.
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established mixedSocial connection
How isolation and loneliness shorten lives, proving the causal relationship and what can be done.
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contested mixedDementia
Whether dementia is becoming more or less common, what is found earlier and why that clouds the count, what treatment and prevention now do, and what the deaths say.
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emerging mixedSlowing ageing itself
Whether anything yet slows ageing itself, rather than treating one disease at a time, and how we would know if it did.
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building mixedFrailty and multimorbidity
Whether the years added after 85 are healthy ones, how frailty and multiple conditions are measured, and where the limits of the data lie.
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building strengtheningChanging behaviour at scale
What moves a population's behaviour — price, defaults, availability, incentives, information — and what the evidence on vaccination, screening and adherence says about which of them work.
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established strengtheningHealth funding and inequalities
Whether inequalities in health and length of life are widening, where, and what is happening to health at working ages.
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Item new preprint
Wastewater sequencing in Lagos found enteric viruses, cholera and mcr resistance genes
Virus-enriched sequencing of untreated wastewater from open drainage canals in Lagos over July and August 2024 recovered a human virome dominated by enteric adenoviruses, astroviruses and caliciviruses, alongside Vibrio cholerae and mcr resistance genes.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Older breast cancer survivors still carried a physical function deficit at ten years
Among 45,530 Women's Health Initiative participants followed 15 years, women diagnosed with regional breast cancer scored 6.8 points lower on SF-36 physical function than age-matched cancer-free women at one year and 5.3 points lower at ten.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Later Chinese cohorts spend more years happy, with gaps widening by education
A cohort-based multistate life table analysis of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey for 2002 to 2018 found later-born cohorts of older adults spent a higher proportion of life happy at every age range, with larger gains for women, urban residents and the formally educated.
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Item confirms peer-reviewed
Abdominal obesity and high blood sugar rose in Korean screening from 2014 to 2023
Aggregated statistics from the Republic of Korea's national health screening programme show abdominal obesity rising from 21.0% to 25.5% and hyperglycaemia from 34.7% to 40.1% between 2014 and 2023, with hypertension up from 42.3% to 45.1%.
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Item confirms preprint
Socially isolated UK Biobank participants had 34% higher all-cause mortality
In 490,114 UK Biobank participants followed from 2006 to 2022, baseline social isolation carried a hazard ratio of 1.34 for all-cause mortality and 1.49 for cardiovascular mortality, with only weak evidence that the association varied by usual transport mode.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Older breast cancer survivors still carried a physical function deficit at ten years
Among 45,530 Women's Health Initiative participants followed 15 years, women diagnosed with regional breast cancer scored 6.8 points lower on SF-36 physical function than age-matched cancer-free women at one year and 5.3 points lower at ten.
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Item confirms peer-reviewed
Abdominal obesity and high blood sugar rose in Korean screening from 2014 to 2023
Aggregated statistics from the Republic of Korea's national health screening programme show abdominal obesity rising from 21.0% to 25.5% and hyperglycaemia from 34.7% to 40.1% between 2014 and 2023, with hypertension up from 42.3% to 45.1%.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Parathyroid carcinoma rose fivefold in Korea, with double the ten-year mortality
In Korean national insurance data from 2005 to 2020, incident parathyroid carcinoma rose 5.0-fold and benign primary hyperparathyroidism 7.7-fold, with ten-year all-cause mortality raised in both, at hazard ratios of 2.29 and 1.22 against matched controls.
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Item confirms peer-reviewed
Two in five memory-clinic patients with only subjective complaints were amyloid-positive
In 194 consecutive memory-clinic patients having amyloid PET, positivity rose from 40.9% in subjective cognitive decline to 66.0% in mild cognitive impairment and 91.7% in early Alzheimer's disease, and adding structural MRI indices did not improve prediction.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Drug-coated balloons showed less restenosis than stents in side-branch lesions
In 161 patients with isolated side-branch coronary bifurcation lesions treated by operator choice, a drug-coated balloon strategy was followed by binary restenosis in 7.4% against 21.3% after stenting, and repeat revascularisation in 4.9% against 15.0%, at one year.
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Item confirms preprint
Socially isolated UK Biobank participants had 34% higher all-cause mortality
In 490,114 UK Biobank participants followed from 2006 to 2022, baseline social isolation carried a hazard ratio of 1.34 for all-cause mortality and 1.49 for cardiovascular mortality, with only weak evidence that the association varied by usual transport mode.
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Item new preprint
Swiss childhood cancer survivors' diets tracked social position, not cardiovascular risk
Among 802 adult survivors of childhood cancer in Switzerland, five dietary patterns identified from a food frequency questionnaire varied by sex, age, language region, smoking and socioeconomic position, but showed no association with cardiovascular disease or its risk factors.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Vapers who never smoked show no clear excess illness in an England survey
Among 7,625 adults in the 2022 Health Survey for England, adjusted odds of any long-standing condition were raised among exclusive smokers (1.87), former smokers (1.44), ever-smoking vapers (2.13) and dual users (2.35), but not among vapers who had never smoked (1.24, 95% CI 0.58-2.63).
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Item confirms peer-reviewed
Fentanyl was present in three quarters of cocaine overdose deaths in one Ohio county
Across 1,150 unintentional cocaine-related overdose deaths in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, between 2014 and 2024, fentanyl was also present in 74.6%, and the two groups differed sharply by age and race.
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Item confirms peer-reviewed
Ultra-processed food intake tracks higher mortality across 51 prospective cohorts
A dose-response meta-analysis of 51 prospective cohorts covering 8.8 million adults found ultra-processed food intake associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.18) and cardiovascular events (HR 1.24), on evidence the authors themselves rate low to moderate.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Later Chinese cohorts spend more years happy, with gaps widening by education
A cohort-based multistate life table analysis of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey for 2002 to 2018 found later-born cohorts of older adults spent a higher proportion of life happy at every age range, with larger gains for women, urban residents and the formally educated.
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Item refines preprint
AI on breast biopsy slides flagged intermediate-risk patients who gained from chemotherapy
Applied without retraining to 6,735 TAILORx trial participants, an AI model reading H&E slides alongside clinical variables predicted disease-free interval (C-index 0.736) and, within the intermediate-risk group, separated patients who gained from chemotherapy from those who did not.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Care-experienced Scottish children had roughly triple the mental health admission risk
Linking Scottish social care and hospital records for 663,601 children born between 1990 and 2004 and followed to 2016, care-experienced girls had a hazard ratio of 3.22 and boys 2.64 for a first mental health hospitalisation, with higher ratios still for repeat admissions.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Austrian all-cause mortality in 2024 sat at or below 2019 at every age over 60
An Austrian analysis of 2024 death certificates found all-cause mortality equal to or below 2019 in every group aged 60 and over despite 1,212 reported COVID-19 deaths, while weighting contributing causes put the COVID death rate at 0.51 to 0.58 of the unweighted figure.
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Item confirms peer-reviewed
US life expectancy ranked 38th in 2023 as the gap with peer countries widened
An analysis of US and comparator mortality data finds US life expectancy ranked 38th globally in 2023, with the gap against 16 high-income countries widening and the rising death rates concentrated at younger and working ages.
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Item new preprint
Wastewater sequencing in Lagos found enteric viruses, cholera and mcr resistance genes
Virus-enriched sequencing of untreated wastewater from open drainage canals in Lagos over July and August 2024 recovered a human virome dominated by enteric adenoviruses, astroviruses and caliciviruses, alongside Vibrio cholerae and mcr resistance genes.
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Item refines preprint
Immunosuppressed people are less protected than their antibody levels would suggest
A meta-analysis of antibody responses to mRNA COVID-19 vaccination found binding antibody levels 54.5-fold lower in people on B-cell depleting therapy than in healthy controls, and protection against infection and hospitalisation lower at any given antibody level.
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Item confirms peer-reviewed
Carbapenem resistance tracked death in ICU-acquired bloodstream infection
Among 352 adults who developed a gram-negative bloodstream infection at least 48 hours after ICU admission, half the isolates were carbapenem-resistant and 30-day mortality was 57.9%, with resistance independently associated with death and appropriate early treatment with survival.
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Item new peer-reviewed
Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales doubled every 2.4 years in French hospitals
French national hospital surveillance for 2019 to 2024 found extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales flat at 0.53 to 0.70 cases per 1,000 patient-days, while carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales rose 32.8% a year from a far lower base, doubling every 2.4 years.
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Item refines peer-reviewed
Remote exercise rehabilitation raised peak oxygen uptake in cardiac patients
A meta-analysis of 13 randomised trials in 958 adults with cardiovascular disease found exercise-based telerehabilitation improved peak oxygen uptake by 2.58 mL/kg/min against usual care, on a 95% prediction interval running from -1.28 to 6.44 and substantial heterogeneity.
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Releases this week
Next seven days: ONS Death Certification Reform, England and Wales (Fri 25); ONS annual deaths (Fri 25); ONS Mortality by pregnancy status following Death Certification Reform, England and Wales (Fri 25); and 11 more. Full calendar