COIOS — COIOS - International risk research catalyst focused on health & longevity research
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Official figures
Follow
Where the evidence stands
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Cancer
Which cancers are rising and which falling, what screening and new tests find earlier, what treatment has done to survival.
6 this week -
Diet, exercise and sleep
What people eat and how much they move, what the measured evidence says each does to how long they live, and what has been shown to change either.
None this week Earlier → -
Innovation in treatment
Treatments that did not exist before — drugs, operations, devices — and whether they reach the people who would benefit.
3 this week -
Revisions and new sources
What the figures are built from, what is newly available, and how much the numbers move when they are revised.
5 this week -
What linked data reveals
What linked registries are making it possible to know about whole populations
3 this week -
Obesity, diabetes and GLP-1
Are obesity and diabetes still rising, understanding behavioural change and public policy, what difference do GLP-1 and friends make.
9 this week -
Medicine at a distance
What wearables, remote monitoring and care at home add to how health is measured and delivered, and whether it shows in outcomes.
2 this week -
Smoking and vaping
How far smoking has fallen and how many deaths it still causes, what vaping is doing to the people who take it up, and what generational bans will show.
3 this week -
Infection and pandemics
Infectious disease and pandemics: understanding both the risks and how well prepared we are
7 this week -
AI in medicine
Whether machine learning predicts, detects and decides better than the tools we have, and whether that has yet changed an outcome for a population.
3 this week -
Alcohol and drug use
What is happening to deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide, whether they move together, and how much of it is behaviour and how much circumstance.
2 this week -
Heart and stroke
Whether deaths from heart disease and stroke have stopped falling, what is found earlier, what treatment and prevention now do, and what the deaths say.
8 this week -
A changing climate
How air pollution, heat and cold affect how long people live, how the attribution is made, and how the balance is changing.
1 this week -
Forecasts and their record
How the numbers are made, how much they revise their own past, and how well mortality can be forecast — and by whom.
1 this week -
Mental health
What mental illness costs in lives — in suicide, in the life expectancy gap in severe mental illness, and in the physical disease that follows it.
5 this week -
Adherence and persistence
Whether a treatment is actually taken, for how long, and what changes either.
5 this week -
Slowing ageing itself
Whether anything yet slows ageing itself, rather than treating one disease at a time, and how we would know if it did.
2 this week -
Dementia
Whether dementia is becoming more or less common, what is found earlier and why that clouds the count, what treatment and prevention now do, and what the deaths say.
1 this week -
Value in health
What a treatment, programme or policy is worth against what it costs, and how far the models that decide it can be trusted.
5 this week -
Social connection
How isolation and loneliness shorten lives, proving the causal relationship and what can be done.
1 this week -
Changing behaviour at scale
What moves a population's behaviour — price, defaults, availability, incentives, information — and what the evidence on vaccination, screening and adherence says about which of them work.
3 this week -
Frailty and multimorbidity
Whether the years added after 85 are healthy ones, how frailty and multiple conditions are measured, and where the limits of the data lie.
2 this week -
Health funding and inequalities
Whether inequalities in health and length of life are widening, where, and what is happening to health at working ages.
5 this week
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Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics new
Modelled pandemic costs rise far more from under-control than from over-control
In transmission models fitted to first-year COVID-19 cases in 110 countries, cost-optimal average transmission reduction ranged from 31.2% to 57.3%, and a shortfall of five percentage points was associated with excess costs above 400%, against 10-80% for the same margin above the optimum.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayDementia new
Ultrafine particle exposure is linked to higher dementia mortality in Canadian cities
In 2.1 million adults in Montreal and Toronto followed from 2001 to 2019, each 10,000 particle/cm3 increase in outdoor ultrafine particle concentration was associated with a 22% higher rate of dementia mortality, rising to 49% for vascular dementia.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
Oral safiglipron was non-inferior to dapagliflozin on HbA1c, and superior at 90 mg
In a double-blind phase 3 trial in adults with type 2 diabetes, the once-daily oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist safiglipron was non-inferior to dapagliflozin for HbA1c reduction at all doses tested and superior at 90 mg, with similar modest weight loss.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsRevisions and new sources new
Real cigarette prices rose 2.9% a year worldwide between 2008 and 2024
A panel analysis of most-sold-brand cigarette prices across 195 countries found inflation-adjusted international dollar prices rising 2.9% a year from 2008 to 2024, with over a fifth of nominal prices unchanged between successive periods and up to 40% in the African region.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence confirms
Older GLP-1 starters were younger and healthier than those starting other diabetes drugs
Among 58,754 adults aged 65 and over with type 2 diabetes in one regional health system, GLP-1 receptor agonist initiators were on average 75.2 years old against 77.7 for SGLT2 inhibitors and 79.5 for DPP-4 inhibitors, with mean BMI 33.8 against 29.7 and 28.6 kg/m2.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayCancer refines
Total Gleason pattern 4 length outperforms risk groups for surveillance eligibility
In 2499 men with Grade Group 2-4 prostate cancer treated by radical prostatectomy, those with under 2 mm of total Gleason pattern 4, whatever their grade group, had adverse pathology in 5.2% and 5-year biochemical recurrence in 20%, matching favourable intermediate-risk disease.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics new
Brazil's 2026 SARI surveillance classes 6,418 deaths as vaccine-preventable
An analysis of 35 weeks of Brazilian severe acute respiratory infection surveillance in 2026 found RSV and rhinovirus causing more deaths than influenza viruses, with 6,418 deaths classed as preventable and a vaccine-preventable mortality rate of 17.23 per 100,000 in the oldest group.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
One in seven Danish anorexia patients follows a worsening severity course
In a Danish register cohort of 9,534 people with anorexia nervosa, 14% followed a high-increasing severity trajectory, which was associated with a higher anorexia polygenic score and with more psychiatric and somatic diagnoses in the five years after diagnosis.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics new
Modelled hepatitis C prevalence ranged from 0.74% to 2.22% across US states in 2017-2020
A Bayesian spatial model integrating surveillance, death, claims and Medicaid data estimated hepatitis C prevalence at 1.32% of adults across 48 US states and DC in 2017-2020, with state estimates ranging from 0.74% in North Dakota to 2.22% in Oklahoma.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance new
Virtual ward patients aged 70+ reported fewer depressive symptoms than inpatients
In a single-trust audit of 100 patients aged 70 and over, 72% of hospital inpatients scored 5 or more on the GDS-15 compared with 30% of those managed on a virtual ward, an unadjusted odds ratio of 6.00 (95% CI 2.53-14.24).
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayMental health new
Mental illness and hip fracture interact to raise 30-day infection risk in older Danes
In a Danish nationwide matched cohort of 100,335 hip fracture patients aged 65 and over and 498,943 comparators, mental health conditions and hip fracture interacted synergistically on 30-day infection risk, with the strongest effect in those with psychoactive substance use disorders.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayCancer new
PSMA-guided radiotherapy missed its primary endpoint but favoured biochemical control
In a phase 2 randomised trial of 253 men, radiotherapy intensified to all PSMA-PET-detected lesions did not meet its primary endpoint of five-year failure-free survival (66% vs 62%), though freedom from biochemical progression was higher (72% vs 65%).
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayHeart and stroke refines
ORBI score marks larger infarcts in STEMI but predicts 10-year death worse than age
Among 1,574 Danish STEMI patients treated by primary PCI, those scoring high on the ORBI cardiogenic-shock risk score had more inflammation, larger infarcts and 41% versus 20% ten-year mortality, though the score discriminated long-term death less well than age alone.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayHeart and stroke confirms
US deaths listing both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest rose faster after 2014
A CDC WONDER analysis of 258,675 US deaths from 1999 to 2020 mentioning both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest found age-adjusted rates rising 2.72% a year to 2014 and 9.55% a year thereafter, highest among Hispanic and American Indian/Alaska Native adults.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayHeart and stroke new
Japanese romosozumab starters had less recent heart attack or stroke than other users
Among 311,585 Japanese patients starting romosozumab between 2019 and 2023, 11.7% of men and 7.9% of women had a myocardial infarction or stroke in the prior 360 days, below the 8.9-17.6% among users of other osteoporosis drugs, and those with such a history discontinued more often.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics confirms
VAERS reports after the 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine were consistent with earlier seasons
A CDC review of 9856 US VAERS reports following the 2024-2025 JN.1-based COVID-19 vaccine found 8.9% serious, eight Guillain-Barre and six myocarditis or myopericarditis cases meeting case definitions, with reporting rates below background rates for both.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
Few Australian paediatricians surveyed offer vaping cessation support to adolescents
In a national survey of Australian paediatricians and registrars in 2023, about two-thirds routinely advised adolescents against vaping but only one in five provided cessation support and one in three knew of referral options.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsAI in medicine new
Screen flags 17 dietary polyphenols that bind Salmonella quorum-sensing proteins
A graph neural network classifier screened over 7,000 phytochemicals and identified 17 dietary polyphenols, including pterostilbene and pyrogallol, that bind the LuxS and LsrB proteins of the Salmonella autoinducer-2 quorum sensing system in laboratory assays.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsValue in health new
Preventive treatment to age 45 for drug-resistant TB contacts modelled as cost-effective
A decision-analytic model across 189 countries found that extending levofloxacin preventive treatment for contacts of MDR/RR tuberculosis from under-15s to age 45 was cost-effective at 30% of GDP per capita in 160 countries and cost-saving in 46.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 confirms
German child overweight and obesity prevalence is 16.1% and stable over two decades
Measured height and weight in 3,978 representative German children aged 4 to 17 in 2023 to 2025 gave an overweight and obesity prevalence of 16.1% and an obesity prevalence of 6.7%, which the authors report as stable against waves dating back to 2005.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed
-
Healthcare todayDementia new
Ultrafine particle exposure is linked to higher dementia mortality in Canadian cities
In 2.1 million adults in Montreal and Toronto followed from 2001 to 2019, each 10,000 particle/cm3 increase in outdoor ultrafine particle concentration was associated with a 22% higher rate of dementia mortality, rising to 49% for vascular dementia.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
Oral safiglipron was non-inferior to dapagliflozin on HbA1c, and superior at 90 mg
In a double-blind phase 3 trial in adults with type 2 diabetes, the once-daily oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist safiglipron was non-inferior to dapagliflozin for HbA1c reduction at all doses tested and superior at 90 mg, with similar modest weight loss.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayCancer refines
Total Gleason pattern 4 length outperforms risk groups for surveillance eligibility
In 2499 men with Grade Group 2-4 prostate cancer treated by radical prostatectomy, those with under 2 mm of total Gleason pattern 4, whatever their grade group, had adverse pathology in 5.2% and 5-year biochemical recurrence in 20%, matching favourable intermediate-risk disease.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
One in seven Danish anorexia patients follows a worsening severity course
In a Danish register cohort of 9,534 people with anorexia nervosa, 14% followed a high-increasing severity trajectory, which was associated with a higher anorexia polygenic score and with more psychiatric and somatic diagnoses in the five years after diagnosis.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayMental health new
Mental illness and hip fracture interact to raise 30-day infection risk in older Danes
In a Danish nationwide matched cohort of 100,335 hip fracture patients aged 65 and over and 498,943 comparators, mental health conditions and hip fracture interacted synergistically on 30-day infection risk, with the strongest effect in those with psychoactive substance use disorders.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayCancer new
PSMA-guided radiotherapy missed its primary endpoint but favoured biochemical control
In a phase 2 randomised trial of 253 men, radiotherapy intensified to all PSMA-PET-detected lesions did not meet its primary endpoint of five-year failure-free survival (66% vs 62%), though freedom from biochemical progression was higher (72% vs 65%).
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayHeart and stroke refines
ORBI score marks larger infarcts in STEMI but predicts 10-year death worse than age
Among 1,574 Danish STEMI patients treated by primary PCI, those scoring high on the ORBI cardiogenic-shock risk score had more inflammation, larger infarcts and 41% versus 20% ten-year mortality, though the score discriminated long-term death less well than age alone.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayHeart and stroke confirms
US deaths listing both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest rose faster after 2014
A CDC WONDER analysis of 258,675 US deaths from 1999 to 2020 mentioning both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest found age-adjusted rates rising 2.72% a year to 2014 and 9.55% a year thereafter, highest among Hispanic and American Indian/Alaska Native adults.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayHeart and stroke new
Japanese romosozumab starters had less recent heart attack or stroke than other users
Among 311,585 Japanese patients starting romosozumab between 2019 and 2023, 11.7% of men and 7.9% of women had a myocardial infarction or stroke in the prior 360 days, below the 8.9-17.6% among users of other osteoporosis drugs, and those with such a history discontinued more often.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 confirms
German child overweight and obesity prevalence is 16.1% and stable over two decades
Measured height and weight in 3,978 representative German children aged 4 to 17 in 2023 to 2025 gave an overweight and obesity prevalence of 16.1% and an obesity prevalence of 6.7%, which the authors report as stable against waves dating back to 2005.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayCancer confirms
Multi-cancer blood test detected 15.4% of stage I cancers at 98.5% specificity
A methylation and protein multi-cancer early detection blood test, assessed in a prospectively collected case-control study of 6,352 samples across 21 tumour types, had overall sensitivity of 50.9% at 98.5% specificity, rising from 15.4% at stage I to 85.5% at stage IV.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayMental health refines
Depression was associated with 65% higher cardiometabolic disease incidence at 15 years
In 1858 Dutch adults followed for 15 years, lifetime major depressive disorder was associated with a 65% higher rate of incident cardiometabolic disease (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.11), with comparable effect sizes across atypical, anhedonic and typical symptom profiles.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayCancer refines
England's cervical screening deprivation gap widened from 4.9 to 7.4 points
Linking 2024 general-practice cervical screening coverage in England to area deprivation gave 73.5% coverage in the most affluent areas against 66.1% in the most deprived, a 7.4 percentage point gap compared with 4.9 points in 2012, with overall coverage lower than a decade ago.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayHeart and stroke refines
Weight loss after a prediabetes diagnosis tracked lower mortality 34 years later
In 540 Chinese adults with impaired glucose tolerance followed for 34 years, those losing at least 5% of body weight during the first six years had a hazard ratio of 0.67 for all-cause death and 0.56 for cardiovascular death compared with those who lost none.
Peer-reviewed -
Healthcare todayHealth funding and inequalities confirms
Childhood disadvantage carried a 26% higher rate of adult all-cause mortality
A meta-analysis of 102 cohort studies covering about 8.5 million people in 24 countries found adult all-cause mortality 26% higher for those whose fathers held the lowest-ranked occupations, with a relative index of inequality of 2.33 for childhood economic circumstances.
Peer-reviewed
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Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence confirms
Older GLP-1 starters were younger and healthier than those starting other diabetes drugs
Among 58,754 adults aged 65 and over with type 2 diabetes in one regional health system, GLP-1 receptor agonist initiators were on average 75.2 years old against 77.7 for SGLT2 inhibitors and 79.5 for DPP-4 inhibitors, with mean BMI 33.8 against 29.7 and 28.6 kg/m2.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
Few Australian paediatricians surveyed offer vaping cessation support to adolescents
In a national survey of Australian paediatricians and registrars in 2023, about two-thirds routinely advised adolescents against vaping but only one in five provided cessation support and one in three knew of referral options.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection confirms
Two loneliness scales agree on most correlates in 135,725 volunteers, not on education
A cross-sectional analysis of 135,725 adult volunteers in England found younger age, being single, unemployed or disabled associated with higher loneliness on both scales, while university education was associated with higher loneliness on UCLA but lower on the ONS direct measure.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use confirms
Norway's total alcohol advertising ban has held for 50 years through legal challenges
A review of Norwegian government documents, parliamentary debate and court rulings traces the comprehensive alcohol marketing ban in force since July 1975, finding it has withstood repeated legal challenge and been extended to alcohol-free beers and social media.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping refines
Most Korean dual users of heated tobacco and cigarettes reverted to cigarettes alone
In 7,260,125 Korean adults screened three times between 2019 and 2023, heated tobacco and e-cigarette use was associated with higher odds of cigarette cessation but also of initiation and relapse, and with lower odds of stopping all tobacco.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence new
Half of clopidogrel initiators after stroke stopped filling by 180 days in US claims
In 45 763 US adults with a first coded ischaemic stroke or TIA, 18.9% filled a P2Y12 inhibitor within 30 days, and among initiators persistence at 180 days was 50.5% for clopidogrel against 59.6% for ticagrelor, with switching in 2.9%.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence refines
Tirzepatide initiators stayed on treatment longer than semaglutide initiators
In propensity-matched US claims data on adults with type 2 diabetes, 12-month adherence was 60% for tirzepatide initiators against 45% for semaglutide initiators among GLP-1-naive patients, with persistence of 62% against 47%.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use new
One in nine older US cannabis users meets criteria for cannabis use disorder
In the 2021-2024 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 8.9% of US adults aged 65 and over had used cannabis in the past year, and 11.4% of those met DSM-5 criteria for cannabis use disorder, 76.0% of them at mild severity.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection refines
Loneliness carries most of the social signal for psychological distress
Across 48,377 respondents in 29 European countries and prospective US Health and Retirement Study waves, loneliness had the largest association with psychological distress of the social measures tested, with all other social variables adding a cross-validated AUC gain of only 0.006.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection new
Recurrent unpaid caregiving was linked to higher smoking and lower inactivity odds
A latent class analysis of 25,049 UK Household Longitudinal Study participants across waves 2 to 13 found that people moving repeatedly into and out of unpaid caregiving had higher odds of smoking (OR 1.67) but lower odds of physical inactivity (OR 0.65) and problematic drinking (OR 0.75).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping confirms
Brief tobacco intervention lowered risk scores in Indian guards, fading by day 90
In a randomised trial among 86 male security personnel at a North Indian tertiary hospital, a WHO ASSIST-linked brief intervention reduced tobacco risk scores relative to general health information, with a group-by-time effect size of 0.34 and dependence differences weakening by day 90.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceChanging behaviour at scale new
Offering HPV vaccine at 9-10 raised series completion by age 13 from 45% to 62%
In a cluster-randomised trial across 31 US paediatric practices, introducing HPV vaccination at ages 9-10 rather than 11-12 brought median series completion forward from 13.3 to 12.2 years and raised completion by age 13 from 45.1% to 61.6%.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence refines
Seven in ten US women stay on endocrine therapy in the first year, linked claims show
In 401,450 US women initiating adjuvant endocrine therapy for breast cancer, 69.9% had a medication possession ratio of at least 80% in the first year, with modelled behavioural attributes such as comfort following medication instructions weakly associated with adherence after adjustment.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep refines
Higher-than-usual personal particulate exposure precedes less walking the next day
In 67 UK adults aged 50-85 wearing personal air quality monitors and accelerometers for five days, a rise of 2.6 micrograms per cubic metre above usual PM2.5 exposure was followed by 8 minutes less light activity and 483 fewer steps the next day.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use new
MDMA-related fatal poisonings in Australia rose to 2019 then fell through 2023
A national coronial series of 217 MDMA-related fatal poisonings in Australia found the population rate rising sharply to 2019 (annual percentage change 61.5) then falling to 2023 (-26.7), with 82.5% of deaths attributed to multiple drug toxicity and 78.8% occurring in private settings.
Peer-reviewed
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Weighing data and modelsRevisions and new sources new
Real cigarette prices rose 2.9% a year worldwide between 2008 and 2024
A panel analysis of most-sold-brand cigarette prices across 195 countries found inflation-adjusted international dollar prices rising 2.9% a year from 2008 to 2024, with over a fifth of nominal prices unchanged between successive periods and up to 40% in the African region.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsAI in medicine new
Screen flags 17 dietary polyphenols that bind Salmonella quorum-sensing proteins
A graph neural network classifier screened over 7,000 phytochemicals and identified 17 dietary polyphenols, including pterostilbene and pyrogallol, that bind the LuxS and LsrB proteins of the Salmonella autoinducer-2 quorum sensing system in laboratory assays.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsValue in health new
Preventive treatment to age 45 for drug-resistant TB contacts modelled as cost-effective
A decision-analytic model across 189 countries found that extending levofloxacin preventive treatment for contacts of MDR/RR tuberculosis from under-15s to age 45 was cost-effective at 30% of GDP per capita in 160 countries and cost-saving in 46.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsForecasts and their record new
Nigeria's adolescent HPV programme is modelled to avert 1.82m cervical cancers by 2100
An agent-based microsimulation calibrated to Nigeria projects that continuing single-dose adolescent HPV vaccination averts 1.82 million cervical cancer cases over 2025 to 2100, a 53% reduction, while 945,000 residual cases fall in women already beyond target age.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsValue in health new
Modelled VPM1002 effectiveness in India is 42.9% extrapulmonary and 14.0% pulmonary
A 1,152-compartment model of tuberculosis in India, resolving pulmonary and extrapulmonary disease separately, estimated that three doses of VPM1002 per million targeted would avert 682 deaths and 9,463 DALYs under 10-year protection, at US$329 per DALY averted.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsValue in health new
Sotagliflozin after worsening heart failure modelled at $75,510 per QALY gained
A lifetime microsimulation built on SOLOIST-WHF trial effects put sotagliflozin at $75,510 per quality-adjusted life-year gained in patients with type 2 diabetes and recent worsening heart failure, at an assumed net cost of $434 a month.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsWhat linked data reveals refines
Scottish AF patients never started on anticoagulants had three times the annual costs
In 47,427 Scots with incident atrial fibrillation and a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 2 or more, continuous oral anticoagulation was associated with annual healthcare costs of GBP 7,288 per patient against GBP 22,751 for those never started.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsAI in medicine new
A deep-learning senescence proteomic score predicted mortality and moved with exercise
A senescence-associated secretory phenotype score, built from UK Biobank plasma proteomics with a guided autoencoder-transformer model, independently predicted mortality and incident dementia, COPD, myocardial infarction and stroke, and changed over 18 months in a multimodal exercise trial.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsAI in medicine new
An LLM identified NYC overdose deaths from investigator narratives with 92% sensitivity
Two language models trained on 9,263 New York City death investigation narratives from 2022-2023 identified suspected overdose deaths with 92% sensitivity and 88% positive predictive value, outperforming the medical examiner's existing surveillance tool and logistic regression.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsValue in health new
Modelled depression screening in KwaZulu-Natal averted HIV infections at $480 per QALY
A compartmental transmission model for KwaZulu-Natal estimated that screening and behavioural treatment for major depressive disorder would avert HIV infections at $340 per infection and $480 per QALY gained, with combined alcohol and depression strategies averting 179,560 infections by 2030.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsValue in health new
Hepatitis B cure at 30% efficacy modelled as cost-effective below $46,642 in the US
A Markov model comparing a hypothetical hepatitis B functional-cure regimen with long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy found gains of 0.30 QALYs per patient in the US and 0.57 in China, cost-effective at one-off prices below USD46,642 and USD13,008 respectively.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsRevisions and new sources new
Zambia's mobile death notification lifted registration completeness from 11.9% to 17.4%
An electronic version of Zambia's Form 13 death notification, used in burial offices across Lusaka, Central, Copperbelt and Southern provinces, captured 115,573 deaths in six months and raised estimated completeness from 11.9% to 17.4% while cutting mean reporting delay from six days to three.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsRevisions and new sources refines
Modelled excess maternal deaths of 68,489 in 2020-2023, with a wide uncertainty interval
Counterfactual models fitted to WHO/UN maternal mortality estimates for 2000-2019 put cumulative excess maternal deaths across 195 countries at 68,489 (95% UI 34,706-147,118) for 2020-2023, with no clear association with national service-disruption measures.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsWhat linked data reveals confirms
Lower education was the most consistent socioeconomic correlate of obesity in Korea
A cross-sectional analysis of the 2022-2024 wave of the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey found lower educational attainment the most consistent socioeconomic correlate of obesity (BMI 25 or above) in adults aged 19 and over, with income and employment less consistent.
Peer-reviewed -
Weighing data and modelsAI in medicine new
Fine-tuned LLM beat ICD codes for in-hospital cardiac arrest on a curated corpus
Large language models reading clinical notes identified in-hospital cardiac arrest with precision 0.88 and recall 1.00 on a curated corpus against 0.68 and 0.91 for ICD codes, though a prompting configuration reached precision 0.79 in an unselected cohort of 45,525 encounters.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed
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Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics new
Modelled pandemic costs rise far more from under-control than from over-control
In transmission models fitted to first-year COVID-19 cases in 110 countries, cost-optimal average transmission reduction ranged from 31.2% to 57.3%, and a shortfall of five percentage points was associated with excess costs above 400%, against 10-80% for the same margin above the optimum.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics new
Brazil's 2026 SARI surveillance classes 6,418 deaths as vaccine-preventable
An analysis of 35 weeks of Brazilian severe acute respiratory infection surveillance in 2026 found RSV and rhinovirus causing more deaths than influenza viruses, with 6,418 deaths classed as preventable and a vaccine-preventable mortality rate of 17.23 per 100,000 in the oldest group.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics new
Modelled hepatitis C prevalence ranged from 0.74% to 2.22% across US states in 2017-2020
A Bayesian spatial model integrating surveillance, death, claims and Medicaid data estimated hepatitis C prevalence at 1.32% of adults across 48 US states and DC in 2017-2020, with state estimates ranging from 0.74% in North Dakota to 2.22% in Oklahoma.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance new
Virtual ward patients aged 70+ reported fewer depressive symptoms than inpatients
In a single-trust audit of 100 patients aged 70 and over, 72% of hospital inpatients scored 5 or more on the GDS-15 compared with 30% of those managed on a virtual ward, an unadjusted odds ratio of 6.00 (95% CI 2.53-14.24).
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics confirms
VAERS reports after the 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine were consistent with earlier seasons
A CDC review of 9856 US VAERS reports following the 2024-2025 JN.1-based COVID-19 vaccine found 8.9% serious, eight Guillain-Barre and six myocarditis or myopericarditis cases meeting case definitions, with reporting rates below background rates for both.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics confirms
Digital reminders raised child vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries
A meta-analysis of 22 randomised trials covering 68,664 participants found digital reminders raised childhood immunisation coverage in low- and middle-income countries (RR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.49), and more so with education (RR 1.72), with substantial heterogeneity.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInnovation in treatment new
Orforglipron against insulin glargine in the ACHIEVE-4 cardiovascular safety trial
ACHIEVE-4 randomised 2749 adults with type 2 diabetes, overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular or kidney disease to oral orforglipron or insulin glargine, testing non-inferiority for four-component major adverse cardiovascular events over a median two years.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance refines
Digital interventions after stroke were linked to 5.8 mmHg lower systolic pressure
A meta-analysis of 29 studies and 8,389 stroke or TIA survivors found digital health interventions associated with a pooled 5.8 mmHg lower systolic blood pressure (95% CI -9.9 to -1.6), with prediction intervals crossing the null and no consistent effect on lipids or weight.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself refines
Proteomic organ clocks tracked 16-year mortality slightly less than epigenetic age
In the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936, accelerated liver, immune and heart proteomic ages were associated with 16-year mortality at hazard ratios of 1.38-1.43 per standard deviation, against 1.44-1.62 for GrimAge2, brain volume, respiratory function and cognition.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate new
Daily cancer deaths in Japan rose 0.88% per 10 micrograms per cubic metre of PM2.5
A case-crossover study of daily deaths across all 47 Japanese prefectures from 2013 to 2022 found a 0.88% rise in all-cancer mortality per 10 micrograms per cubic metre of PM2.5 at lag 0-2 days, an association that did not survive adjustment for NO2 or SO2.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself new
Uncertainty in a biological age estimate predicts mortality independently of the age gap
A probabilistic framework applied to more than 450,000 UK Biobank participants derived both a biological age gap and a biological age uncertainty from the width of predicted-age distributions, with uncertainty only weakly correlated with the gap and independently associated with mortality.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics refines
Korea's 2025-26 avian flu season carried diverse H5Nx genotypes, one of European origin
Genomic surveillance of 62 poultry outbreaks and 63 wild bird detections in Korea during winter 2025-26 found extensive clade 2.3.4.4b reassortment, including the European H5N1 genotype EA-2024-DI.2.1 that spread across Europe in 2025, alongside novel H5N1 and H5N9 poultry genotypes.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance refines
Pacemaker after cardiac surgery carries modestly higher long-term mortality in Sweden
Among 76 223 Swedish adults undergoing cardiac surgery between 2006 and 2020, the 2.8% who received a permanent pacemaker within 30 days had a 9% higher adjusted risk of all-cause death and a 36% higher risk of heart failure hospitalisation over a mean 6.8 years.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics new
Wastewater sequencing in Lagos found enteric viruses, cholera and mcr resistance genes
Virus-enriched sequencing of untreated wastewater from open drainage canals in Lagos over July and August 2024 recovered a human virome dominated by enteric adenoviruses, astroviruses and caliciviruses, alongside Vibrio cholerae and mcr resistance genes.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInfection and pandemics refines
Immunosuppressed people are less protected than their antibody levels would suggest
A meta-analysis of antibody responses to mRNA COVID-19 vaccination found binding antibody levels 54.5-fold lower in people on B-cell depleting therapy than in healthy controls, and protection against infection and hospitalisation lower at any given antibody level.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed
