COIOS — COIOS - International risk research catalyst focused on health & longevity research
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Official figures
Where the evidence stands
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Forecasts and their record
How the forecasts are made, how well they explained the past, and how well mortality can be forecast — and by whom.
None this week Earlier → -
Innovation in treatment
Treatments that did not exist before — drugs, operations, devices — and whether they reach the people who would benefit.
None this week Earlier → -
Cancer
Where is cancer incidence rising and falling, what screening and new tests find earlier, and what treatment has done to survival.
4 this week -
Diet, exercise and sleep
What people eat and how much they move: what the measured evidence says each does to mortality, and what has been shown to change either.
5 this week -
What linked data reveals
What linked registries make it possible to know about whole populations
8 this week -
Changing behaviour at scale
Whether new technology can change what people do at the scale of a population: apps, wearables, automated messages, digital programmes and platforms, and how far their effects last and reach.
1 this week -
Obesity, diabetes and GLP-1
Are obesity and diabetes still rising, what behavioural change and public policy do, and what difference do GLP-1s and other similar drugs make.
1 this week -
Smoking and vaping
How far smoking has fallen and how many deaths it still causes, what vaping is doing to the people who take it up, and what generational bans will show.
1 this week -
Alcohol and drug use
What is happening to deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide, whether they move together, and how much of it is behaviour and how much circumstance.
1 this week -
Medicine at a distance
What wearables, remote monitoring and care at home add to how health is measured and delivered, and whether it shows in outcomes.
None this week Earlier → -
Heart and stroke
Whether deaths from heart disease and stroke have stopped falling, what is found earlier, what treatment and prevention do now, and what the deaths say.
3 this week -
AI in medicine
Whether machine learning predicts, detects and decides better than the tools we have, and whether that has yet changed an outcome for a population.
1 this week -
Health systems and access
What the health system can provide, who gets it, and whether the gaps in health between groups are widening.
4 this week -
Mental health
Deaths by suicide, the life expectancy gap in severe mental illness, and the physical disease that follows it: what mental illness costs in lives.
1 this week -
A changing climate
How air pollution, heat and cold affect deaths and survival, how the attribution is made, and how the balance is changing.
3 this week -
Social connection
Isolation, loneliness and mortality: what the evidence shows, how far the relationship is causal, and what interventions have shown.
None this week Earlier → -
Infection and pandemics
Infection and pandemics: the risks, and how well prepared we are
5 this week -
Value in health
What a treatment, health programme or policy is worth against what it costs, and how far the models that decide it can be trusted.
1 this week -
Slowing ageing itself
Whether anything yet slows ageing itself, rather than treating one disease at a time, and how we would know if it did.
2 this week -
Dementia
Whether dementia is becoming more or less common, what is now found, what treatment and prevention do, and what the deaths say.
3 this week -
Revisions and new sources
What the figures are built from, what is newly available, and how much the numbers move when they are revised.
2 this week -
Adherence and persistence
Whether a treatment is actually taken, for how long, and what changes either.
1 this week -
Frailty and multimorbidity
Whether the years added after 85 are healthy ones, how frailty and multiple conditions are measured, and where the data run out.
1 this week
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Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Automated coronary calcium scoring stratified risk better than expert reading
Tested in 5,969 patients, an automated coronary calcium model stratified risk of death or myocardial infarction better than experts reading the same low-dose CT scans.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate new
More days above the WHO daily NO2 guideline are followed by faster cognitive decline
Among 12,235 English adults aged 50 and over, more days above the WHO daily NO2 guideline were followed by faster decline in memory and fluency, independent of annual mean exposure.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer refines
Cancer cachexia episodes coincide with disease progression and lower survival
In 52,236 patients with cancer, cachectic weight loss episodes occurred at times of disease progression, were linked to lower survival, and were more common in tumours with TP53 mutations.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsRevisions and new sources new
Published rules for detecting statin intolerance agree poorly with Australian GP records
Statin intolerance was recorded in 5.09% of Australian primary-prevention statin users, and none of six published rules for detecting it from records matched a locally developed reference standard consistently.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsWhat linked data reveals new
Swedish resource SIMPLER links 107,000 adults' diet data to national registers
The Swedish research infrastructure SIMPLER brings together two cohorts, 61,433 women recruited in 1987-90 and 45,906 men in 1997, with repeated diet questionnaires, register linkage and stored biological samples.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayFrailty and multimorbidity new
Sixty of 99 dietary factors are associated with hip fracture in UK women
Among 541,887 UK postmenopausal women followed for about 20 years, 60 of 99 dietary factors were associated with hip fracture risk after correction for multiple testing.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use refines
Drug-poisoning deaths are set against the change in US life expectancy, 2019 to 2024
A cross-sectional study examines how far changes in drug-poisoning deaths account for the change in US life expectancy between 2019 and 2024.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Bangladesh's measles outbreak has killed up to 1144, most of them children
Bangladesh has recorded 22 116 laboratory-confirmed measles cases since mid-March and a death toll put as high as 1144, while officials say their own confirmed counts are an underestimate.
Agency -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate refines
Wildfire smoke PM2.5 is associated with higher dementia incidence in older US adults
Each microgram per cubic metre of wildfire smoke PM2.5 was associated with a 2.9% increase in the incidence rate of dementia among 39.7 million US Medicare beneficiaries followed to 2019.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access refines
US county excess deaths linked to education and insurance coverage
A screen of 2,745 county-level variables found the strongest correlates of US county excess deaths were college attainment (-0.54) and uninsurance at ages 40-64 (+0.53).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep refines
Mid-life exercise of about an hour a day reduces hip fracture risk
In 324,284 UK Biobank adults followed for 16 years, hip fracture risk was lowest at about one hour a day of leisure-time activity, with no further reduction at higher volumes.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access new
GP requests for specialist advice led to later diagnoses than referral alone
Among 71,145 patients in English primary care records, those whose GP sought specialist advice before referring were diagnosed later than those referred electively, by 15.9 weeks for inflammatory bowel disease.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Top 10% by polygenic risk carry a fifth of Taiwan's atrial fibrillation
Taiwan Biobank genotypes were linked to national insurance claims for 140,000 people, and those in the top 10% by polygenic risk were 3.56 times as likely to develop atrial fibrillation.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Higher HPV antibody levels are associated with greater vaccine efficacy across types
A Bayesian meta-analysis of randomised HPV vaccine trials found higher type-specific antibody levels associated with greater efficacy against infection and CIN2+, with the level associated with protection differing by type.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself refines
Immune gene HLA-DRB1*04 is commoner in centenarians, DRB1*01:01 in Alzheimer's patients
Fine-mapping of HLA class II immune genes in 6,053 people found DRB1*04 subtypes commoner in 443 cognitively healthy centenarians, and DRB1*01:01 commoner in the 2,391 Alzheimer's patients.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health refines
Severe mental illness costs Norwegian men 1.5 to 19.9 life-years depending on subgroup
In a Norwegian registry cohort of 2,486,836 adults followed from 2008 to 2023, excess life-years lost from age 30 in men ranged from 1.50 for depression with non-inpatient care and university education to 19.86 for schizophrenia with inpatient care and less than high school education.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence new
Most adults starting semaglutide or tirzepatide did not continue for a year
Among 743,153 US adults starting semaglutide or tirzepatide for obesity in 2024, 29.9% and 35.9% respectively were still being prescribed the drug at 12 months.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access new
Twelve-hour emergency stays carry 1.95 times the hospitalisation risk over two years
Among 3,347,008 working-age adults attending emergency departments in England, stays of 12 hours or more carried 1.95 times the hospitalisation risk over two years, compared with stays under two hours.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate refines
Summer heat in Italy raises deaths from nervous system and mental illness
Across 7,864 Italian municipalities over 20 summers, heat-attributable fractions were highest for nervous system diseases at 14.93% and mental and behavioural disorders at 14.47%.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep new
Weight-management texts did not reduce weight in postpartum women over 12 months
Among 892 postpartum women with a BMI of 25 or more, 12 months of automated weight-management texts made no difference to weight against texts on child health (-0.1 kg).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer new
Menopausal hormone therapy users had higher breast cancer incidence but lower mortality
In 78,209 women in the PLCO screening trial, ever use of menopausal hormone therapy was associated with higher breast cancer incidence (aHR 1.17) and lower breast cancer mortality (0.72).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
Nicotine pouch take-up is higher among US adults using other tobacco products
In the PATH study of 24,640 US adults, those using smokeless tobacco only took up oral nicotine pouches at 42.4 times the rate of adults using no other tobacco product.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep refines
Swapping sleep for activity relates to mortality differently in short sleepers
Among UK Biobank adults meeting sleep duration guidelines, moving 30 minutes from sleep to moderate or vigorous activity carried an all-cause mortality hazard ratio of 0.80.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics refines
Dutch infant vaccination uptake fell during the pandemic and again after it
Children in the Netherlands due their first diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-polio dose after the pandemic had a fifth the odds of vaccination by six months of their pre-pandemic siblings.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Modelled extra HPV doses for women with HIV averted cervical cancer
A Markov model of 13 African countries found that extra HPV doses for women living with HIV averted cervical cancer beyond routine vaccination at 14, at added programme cost.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Modelled early pandemic costs rise more from too little control than from too much
In models fitted to first-year COVID-19 cases in 110 countries, controlling transmission five points below the cost-optimal level carried excess costs above 400%, against 10-80% five points above.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayDementia new
Dementia mortality is higher where outdoor ultrafine particle levels are higher
In 2.1 million adults in Montreal and Toronto, each 10,000 particle/cm3 increase in outdoor ultrafine particle concentration was associated with a 22% higher rate of dementia mortality.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
Oral safiglipron lowered HbA1c as much as dapagliflozin, and more at 90 mg
In adults with type 2 diabetes, once-daily oral safiglipron lowered HbA1c at least as much as dapagliflozin, and by more at the 90 mg dose.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
Real cigarette prices rose 2.9% a year across 195 countries
Inflation-adjusted cigarette prices across 195 countries rose 2.9% a year between 2008 and 2024, with over a fifth of nominal prices unchanged between successive periods.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence confirms
Older adults starting GLP-1 drugs were younger and heavier than other initiators
Among 58,754 adults aged 65 and over with type 2 diabetes, mean BMI at initiation was 33.8 for GLP-1 drugs as compared to 29.7 for SGLT2 inhibitors.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer refines
Under 2 mm of Gleason pattern 4 matches favourable intermediate-risk prostate cancer
Among 2499 men with Grade Group 2-4 prostate cancer, those with under 2 mm of Gleason pattern 4 had 5-year biochemical recurrence of 20%, matching favourable intermediate-risk disease.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
RSV and rhinovirus caused more Brazilian respiratory deaths in 2026 than influenza
Brazilian surveillance over 35 weeks of 2026 recorded more severe respiratory deaths from RSV and rhinovirus than from influenza, concentrated in children under 2 and those aged 65 and over.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
One in seven Danish anorexia patients became steadily more ill after diagnosis
Among 9,534 Danish patients with anorexia nervosa, one in seven became steadily more ill, with more psychiatric and physical illness in the five years after diagnosis.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
An estimated 1.32% of US adults had hepatitis C in 2017-2020
An estimated 1.32% of US adults, or 3.33 million people, had hepatitis C over 2017-2020, on a model combining six surveillance, claims and Medicaid sources.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance new
Older patients on a virtual ward reported fewer depressive symptoms than inpatients
Among 100 patients aged 70 and over, 72% of hospital inpatients screened positive for depressive symptoms as compared to 30% of those cared for on a virtual ward.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health new
Infection followed hip fracture in 43% of older Danish patients with dementia
Among 100,335 Danish hip fracture patients aged 65 and over, infection within 30 days reached 43.0% in those with dementia, as compared to 18.4% in matched comparators with dementia.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer new
PSMA-guided radiotherapy did not improve failure-free survival in prostate cancer
In a phase 2 trial of 253 men, radiotherapy targeted to every lesion seen on PSMA-PET gave five-year failure-free survival of 66% against 62% for standard care.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
STEMI patients judged at high risk of shock had double the ten-year mortality
Among 1,574 Danish STEMI patients treated by primary angioplasty, those a score marked as at high risk of shock in hospital had ten-year mortality of 41% against 20%.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke confirms
US deaths recording both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest rose faster after 2014
Deaths of US adults recording both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest rose by 2.72% a year to 2014, then by 9.55% a year to 2020.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Japanese romosozumab starters had less recent heart attack or stroke than other users
Among 311,585 Japanese patients starting romosozumab between 2019 and 2023, 11.7% of men and 7.9% of women had a myocardial infarction or stroke in the prior 360 days, below the 8.9-17.6% among users of other osteoporosis drugs, and those with such a history discontinued more often.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics confirms
VAERS reports after the 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine were consistent with earlier seasons
A CDC review of 9856 US VAERS reports following the 2024-2025 JN.1-based COVID-19 vaccine found 8.9% serious, eight Guillain-Barre and six myocarditis or myopericarditis cases meeting case definitions, with reporting rates below background rates for both.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
One in five Australian paediatricians surveyed provides vaping cessation support
Of 90 paediatricians and registrars surveyed across Australia in 2023, over two-thirds routinely advised adolescents against vaping, but only one in five provided cessation support.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Machine learning screen finds 17 dietary polyphenols that bind Salmonella proteins
A graph neural network screened over 7,000 plant compounds, and laboratory binding assays confirmed that 17 dietary polyphenols attach to two proteins Salmonella uses to coordinate its virulence.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Treating drug-resistant TB contacts up to age 45 was modelled as cost-effective
A model of 189 countries found that offering preventive treatment to household contacts of drug-resistant tuberculosis up to age 45, rather than only under-15s, was cost-effective in 160 countries.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 confirms
Overweight/obesity in German children stands at 16.1%, unchanged over two decades
Measured height and weight in a representative sample of 3,978 German children aged 4 to 17 gave an overweight and obesity prevalence of 16.1%, with obesity alone at 6.7%.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer confirms
Multi-cancer early detection blood test detected 15.4% of stage I cancers
A methylation and protein blood test identified 50.9% of cancers across 21 tumour organ types at a specificity of 98.5%, in a multi-centre case-control study of 6,352 samples.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics confirms
Digital reminders raised child vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries
A meta-analysis of 22 randomised trials in low- and middle-income countries found reminders raised the share of children vaccinated relative to usual care (RR 1.27), though trial results varied widely.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsForecasts and their record new
Nigeria's HPV programme is modelled to avert 1.82 million cervical cancers
Continuing to vaccinate Nigerian girls aged 9 to 14 is projected to avert 1.82 million cervical cancer cases to 2100, with 945,000 remaining in women already too old.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Tuberculosis vaccine VPM1002 is modelled as stronger against disease outside the lungs
A dynamic model of tuberculosis in India estimated the VPM1002 vaccine to be 42.9% effective against disease outside the lungs and 14.0% against lung disease, both intervals including no effect.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health refines
Depression carried a 65% higher rate of new cardiometabolic disease over 15 years
Among 1858 Dutch adults followed for 15 years, lifetime major depression was associated with higher cardiometabolic disease incidence (HR 1.65), with no one symptom pattern carrying more risk than another.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection confirms
Two ways of asking about loneliness disagree over graduates in England
Among 135,725 adult volunteers in England, university education was associated with higher loneliness on a three-question scale but with lower loneliness when people were asked directly.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use confirms
Norway's ban on all alcohol advertising has survived 50 years of legal challenge
A review of Norwegian government documents, parliamentary papers and court rulings traces the alcohol marketing ban in force since 1975, which has adapted to alcohol-free beers and social media.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping refines
Seven in ten Korean heated tobacco and cigarette users moved to cigarettes
Among 7.26 million Korean adults screened between 2019 and 2023, users of heated tobacco or e-cigarettes were more likely to quit cigarettes, but also more likely to start smoking again.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInnovation in treatment new
Oral orforglipron is tested for cardiovascular safety against insulin in type 2 diabetes
A phase 3 trial randomised 2749 adults with type 2 diabetes and heart or kidney disease to oral orforglipron or insulin glargine, and followed them for a median two years.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Sotagliflozin after worsening heart failure is modelled at $75,510 per QALY gained
A lifetime microsimulation of patients with type 2 diabetes after worsening heart failure put sotagliflozin at $75,510 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, at an assumed net cost of $434 a month.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer refines
England's cervical screening coverage gap by deprivation has widened to 7.4 points
Cervical screening coverage in England in 2024 ranged from 73.5% in the least deprived areas to 66.1% in the most deprived, a wider gap than that recorded twelve years earlier.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
Never starting anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation carried the highest annual costs
Among 47,427 Scots with incident atrial fibrillation, annual healthcare costs were GBP 7,288 per patient on continuous oral anticoagulation and GBP 22,751 for those never started on it.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
Weight loss in impaired glucose tolerance went with fewer deaths over 34 years
In 540 Chinese adults with impaired glucose tolerance, a weight loss of 5% or more over six years carried a hazard ratio for death of 0.67 against no weight loss.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance refines
Systolic pressure was 5.8 mmHg lower with apps and wearables after stroke
Across 29 studies in 8,389 stroke and transient ischaemic attack survivors, systolic blood pressure was 5.8 mmHg lower with mobile applications or wearables, though prediction intervals crossed the null.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
A blood protein score of cellular ageing predicted death in UK Biobank
A blood protein score of cellular ageing, built in UK Biobank, predicted death and later dementia, COPD, heart attack and stroke, and changed over 18 months with exercise.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence new
Fewer than one in five US stroke and TIA patients filled a P2Y12 inhibitor
Among 45,763 US adults with a first ischaemic stroke or TIA, 18.9% filled a P2Y12 inhibitor within 30 days, and half of clopidogrel initiators had stopped filling by 180 days.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access confirms
Adult mortality is 26% higher for those whose fathers held lower-ranked jobs
A meta-analysis of 102 cohort studies covering about 8.5 million people in 24 countries found adult all-cause mortality 26% higher for those whose fathers held lower-ranked occupations.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence refines
Tirzepatide initiators stayed on treatment longer than semaglutide initiators
In propensity-matched US claims data on adults with type 2 diabetes, 12-month adherence was 60% for tirzepatide initiators against 45% for semaglutide initiators among GLP-1-naive patients, with persistence of 62% against 47%.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself refines
Proteomic organ clocks tracked 16-year mortality less closely than epigenetic age
Accelerated liver, immune and heart proteomic ageing carried hazard ratios of 1.38 to 1.43 per standard deviation for 16-year mortality, below those for epigenetic age and cognition.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
GLP-1 prescribing to US children aged 8-11 with obesity rose but stayed under 1%
Among 3.5 million US children aged 8 to 11 with obesity and without diabetes recorded in Epic Cosmos between 2019 and June 2026, 0.6% received a GLP-1 receptor agonist prescription, with rates highest among 11-year-olds, girls, and those with obesity-related comorbidities.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate new
Daily cancer deaths in Japan were 0.88% higher per 10 micrograms/m3 of PM2.5
A 10 microgram per cubic metre rise in PM2.5 was associated with 0.88% more cancer deaths in Japan, though the association did not survive adjustment for NO2 or SO2.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Language models identified overdose deaths from New York investigators' written reports
Reading the reports New York City death investigators write on each case, the better of two language models identified suspected overdose deaths with 92% sensitivity and 88% positive predictive value.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Modelled depression screening of KwaZulu-Natal sex workers averts HIV at $490 per QALY
A transmission model for KwaZulu-Natal found depression screening with behavioural treatment most cost-effective among female sex workers, at $350 per HIV infection averted and $490 per QALY gained.
Peer-reviewed
-
Health todayCancer refines
Cancer cachexia episodes coincide with disease progression and lower survival
In 52,236 patients with cancer, cachectic weight loss episodes occurred at times of disease progression, were linked to lower survival, and were more common in tumours with TP53 mutations.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayFrailty and multimorbidity new
Sixty of 99 dietary factors are associated with hip fracture in UK women
Among 541,887 UK postmenopausal women followed for about 20 years, 60 of 99 dietary factors were associated with hip fracture risk after correction for multiple testing.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Top 10% by polygenic risk carry a fifth of Taiwan's atrial fibrillation
Taiwan Biobank genotypes were linked to national insurance claims for 140,000 people, and those in the top 10% by polygenic risk were 3.56 times as likely to develop atrial fibrillation.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health refines
Severe mental illness costs Norwegian men 1.5 to 19.9 life-years depending on subgroup
In a Norwegian registry cohort of 2,486,836 adults followed from 2008 to 2023, excess life-years lost from age 30 in men ranged from 1.50 for depression with non-inpatient care and university education to 19.86 for schizophrenia with inpatient care and less than high school education.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer new
Menopausal hormone therapy users had higher breast cancer incidence but lower mortality
In 78,209 women in the PLCO screening trial, ever use of menopausal hormone therapy was associated with higher breast cancer incidence (aHR 1.17) and lower breast cancer mortality (0.72).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayDementia new
Dementia mortality is higher where outdoor ultrafine particle levels are higher
In 2.1 million adults in Montreal and Toronto, each 10,000 particle/cm3 increase in outdoor ultrafine particle concentration was associated with a 22% higher rate of dementia mortality.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
Oral safiglipron lowered HbA1c as much as dapagliflozin, and more at 90 mg
In adults with type 2 diabetes, once-daily oral safiglipron lowered HbA1c at least as much as dapagliflozin, and by more at the 90 mg dose.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer refines
Under 2 mm of Gleason pattern 4 matches favourable intermediate-risk prostate cancer
Among 2499 men with Grade Group 2-4 prostate cancer, those with under 2 mm of Gleason pattern 4 had 5-year biochemical recurrence of 20%, matching favourable intermediate-risk disease.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
One in seven Danish anorexia patients became steadily more ill after diagnosis
Among 9,534 Danish patients with anorexia nervosa, one in seven became steadily more ill, with more psychiatric and physical illness in the five years after diagnosis.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health new
Infection followed hip fracture in 43% of older Danish patients with dementia
Among 100,335 Danish hip fracture patients aged 65 and over, infection within 30 days reached 43.0% in those with dementia, as compared to 18.4% in matched comparators with dementia.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer new
PSMA-guided radiotherapy did not improve failure-free survival in prostate cancer
In a phase 2 trial of 253 men, radiotherapy targeted to every lesion seen on PSMA-PET gave five-year failure-free survival of 66% against 62% for standard care.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
STEMI patients judged at high risk of shock had double the ten-year mortality
Among 1,574 Danish STEMI patients treated by primary angioplasty, those a score marked as at high risk of shock in hospital had ten-year mortality of 41% against 20%.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke confirms
US deaths recording both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest rose faster after 2014
Deaths of US adults recording both type 2 diabetes and cardiac arrest rose by 2.72% a year to 2014, then by 9.55% a year to 2020.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke new
Japanese romosozumab starters had less recent heart attack or stroke than other users
Among 311,585 Japanese patients starting romosozumab between 2019 and 2023, 11.7% of men and 7.9% of women had a myocardial infarction or stroke in the prior 360 days, below the 8.9-17.6% among users of other osteoporosis drugs, and those with such a history discontinued more often.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 confirms
Overweight/obesity in German children stands at 16.1%, unchanged over two decades
Measured height and weight in a representative sample of 3,978 German children aged 4 to 17 gave an overweight and obesity prevalence of 16.1%, with obesity alone at 6.7%.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer confirms
Multi-cancer early detection blood test detected 15.4% of stage I cancers
A methylation and protein blood test identified 50.9% of cancers across 21 tumour organ types at a specificity of 98.5%, in a multi-centre case-control study of 6,352 samples.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayMental health refines
Depression carried a 65% higher rate of new cardiometabolic disease over 15 years
Among 1858 Dutch adults followed for 15 years, lifetime major depression was associated with higher cardiometabolic disease incidence (HR 1.65), with no one symptom pattern carrying more risk than another.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayCancer refines
England's cervical screening coverage gap by deprivation has widened to 7.4 points
Cervical screening coverage in England in 2024 ranged from 73.5% in the least deprived areas to 66.1% in the most deprived, a wider gap than that recorded twelve years earlier.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
Never starting anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation carried the highest annual costs
Among 47,427 Scots with incident atrial fibrillation, annual healthcare costs were GBP 7,288 per patient on continuous oral anticoagulation and GBP 22,751 for those never started on it.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayHeart and stroke refines
Weight loss in impaired glucose tolerance went with fewer deaths over 34 years
In 540 Chinese adults with impaired glucose tolerance, a weight loss of 5% or more over six years carried a hazard ratio for death of 0.67 against no weight loss.
Peer-reviewed -
Health todayObesity, diabetes and GLP-1 new
GLP-1 prescribing to US children aged 8-11 with obesity rose but stayed under 1%
Among 3.5 million US children aged 8 to 11 with obesity and without diabetes recorded in Epic Cosmos between 2019 and June 2026, 0.6% received a GLP-1 receptor agonist prescription, with rates highest among 11-year-olds, girls, and those with obesity-related comorbidities.
Peer-reviewed
-
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use refines
Drug-poisoning deaths are set against the change in US life expectancy, 2019 to 2024
A cross-sectional study examines how far changes in drug-poisoning deaths account for the change in US life expectancy between 2019 and 2024.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Bangladesh's measles outbreak has killed up to 1144, most of them children
Bangladesh has recorded 22 116 laboratory-confirmed measles cases since mid-March and a death toll put as high as 1144, while officials say their own confirmed counts are an underestimate.
Agency -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep refines
Mid-life exercise of about an hour a day reduces hip fracture risk
In 324,284 UK Biobank adults followed for 16 years, hip fracture risk was lowest at about one hour a day of leisure-time activity, with no further reduction at higher volumes.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Higher HPV antibody levels are associated with greater vaccine efficacy across types
A Bayesian meta-analysis of randomised HPV vaccine trials found higher type-specific antibody levels associated with greater efficacy against infection and CIN2+, with the level associated with protection differing by type.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence new
Most adults starting semaglutide or tirzepatide did not continue for a year
Among 743,153 US adults starting semaglutide or tirzepatide for obesity in 2024, 29.9% and 35.9% respectively were still being prescribed the drug at 12 months.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep new
Weight-management texts did not reduce weight in postpartum women over 12 months
Among 892 postpartum women with a BMI of 25 or more, 12 months of automated weight-management texts made no difference to weight against texts on child health (-0.1 kg).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
Nicotine pouch take-up is higher among US adults using other tobacco products
In the PATH study of 24,640 US adults, those using smokeless tobacco only took up oral nicotine pouches at 42.4 times the rate of adults using no other tobacco product.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceDiet, exercise and sleep refines
Swapping sleep for activity relates to mortality differently in short sleepers
Among UK Biobank adults meeting sleep duration guidelines, moving 30 minutes from sleep to moderate or vigorous activity carried an all-cause mortality hazard ratio of 0.80.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics refines
Dutch infant vaccination uptake fell during the pandemic and again after it
Children in the Netherlands due their first diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-polio dose after the pandemic had a fifth the odds of vaccination by six months of their pre-pandemic siblings.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
Modelled early pandemic costs rise more from too little control than from too much
In models fitted to first-year COVID-19 cases in 110 countries, controlling transmission five points below the cost-optimal level carried excess costs above 400%, against 10-80% five points above.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
Real cigarette prices rose 2.9% a year across 195 countries
Inflation-adjusted cigarette prices across 195 countries rose 2.9% a year between 2008 and 2024, with over a fifth of nominal prices unchanged between successive periods.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence confirms
Older adults starting GLP-1 drugs were younger and heavier than other initiators
Among 58,754 adults aged 65 and over with type 2 diabetes, mean BMI at initiation was 33.8 for GLP-1 drugs as compared to 29.7 for SGLT2 inhibitors.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
RSV and rhinovirus caused more Brazilian respiratory deaths in 2026 than influenza
Brazilian surveillance over 35 weeks of 2026 recorded more severe respiratory deaths from RSV and rhinovirus than from influenza, concentrated in children under 2 and those aged 65 and over.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics new
An estimated 1.32% of US adults had hepatitis C in 2017-2020
An estimated 1.32% of US adults, or 3.33 million people, had hepatitis C over 2017-2020, on a model combining six surveillance, claims and Medicaid sources.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics confirms
VAERS reports after the 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine were consistent with earlier seasons
A CDC review of 9856 US VAERS reports following the 2024-2025 JN.1-based COVID-19 vaccine found 8.9% serious, eight Guillain-Barre and six myocarditis or myopericarditis cases meeting case definitions, with reporting rates below background rates for both.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping new
One in five Australian paediatricians surveyed provides vaping cessation support
Of 90 paediatricians and registrars surveyed across Australia in 2023, over two-thirds routinely advised adolescents against vaping, but only one in five provided cessation support.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceInfection and pandemics confirms
Digital reminders raised child vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries
A meta-analysis of 22 randomised trials in low- and middle-income countries found reminders raised the share of children vaccinated relative to usual care (RR 1.27), though trial results varied widely.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSocial connection confirms
Two ways of asking about loneliness disagree over graduates in England
Among 135,725 adult volunteers in England, university education was associated with higher loneliness on a three-question scale but with lower loneliness when people were asked directly.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAlcohol and drug use confirms
Norway's ban on all alcohol advertising has survived 50 years of legal challenge
A review of Norwegian government documents, parliamentary papers and court rulings traces the alcohol marketing ban in force since 1975, which has adapted to alcohol-free beers and social media.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceSmoking and vaping refines
Seven in ten Korean heated tobacco and cigarette users moved to cigarettes
Among 7.26 million Korean adults screened between 2019 and 2023, users of heated tobacco or e-cigarettes were more likely to quit cigarettes, but also more likely to start smoking again.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence new
Fewer than one in five US stroke and TIA patients filled a P2Y12 inhibitor
Among 45,763 US adults with a first ischaemic stroke or TIA, 18.9% filled a P2Y12 inhibitor within 30 days, and half of clopidogrel initiators had stopped filling by 180 days.
Peer-reviewed -
Behavioural scienceAdherence and persistence refines
Tirzepatide initiators stayed on treatment longer than semaglutide initiators
In propensity-matched US claims data on adults with type 2 diabetes, 12-month adherence was 60% for tirzepatide initiators against 45% for semaglutide initiators among GLP-1-naive patients, with persistence of 62% against 47%.
Peer-reviewed
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Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Automated coronary calcium scoring stratified risk better than expert reading
Tested in 5,969 patients, an automated coronary calcium model stratified risk of death or myocardial infarction better than experts reading the same low-dose CT scans.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsRevisions and new sources new
Published rules for detecting statin intolerance agree poorly with Australian GP records
Statin intolerance was recorded in 5.09% of Australian primary-prevention statin users, and none of six published rules for detecting it from records matched a locally developed reference standard consistently.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsWhat linked data reveals new
Swedish resource SIMPLER links 107,000 adults' diet data to national registers
The Swedish research infrastructure SIMPLER brings together two cohorts, 61,433 women recruited in 1987-90 and 45,906 men in 1997, with repeated diet questionnaires, register linkage and stored biological samples.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access refines
US county excess deaths linked to education and insurance coverage
A screen of 2,745 county-level variables found the strongest correlates of US county excess deaths were college attainment (-0.54) and uninsurance at ages 40-64 (+0.53).
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access new
GP requests for specialist advice led to later diagnoses than referral alone
Among 71,145 patients in English primary care records, those whose GP sought specialist advice before referring were diagnosed later than those referred electively, by 15.9 weeks for inflammatory bowel disease.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access new
Twelve-hour emergency stays carry 1.95 times the hospitalisation risk over two years
Among 3,347,008 working-age adults attending emergency departments in England, stays of 12 hours or more carried 1.95 times the hospitalisation risk over two years, compared with stays under two hours.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Modelled extra HPV doses for women with HIV averted cervical cancer
A Markov model of 13 African countries found that extra HPV doses for women living with HIV averted cervical cancer beyond routine vaccination at 14, at added programme cost.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Machine learning screen finds 17 dietary polyphenols that bind Salmonella proteins
A graph neural network screened over 7,000 plant compounds, and laboratory binding assays confirmed that 17 dietary polyphenols attach to two proteins Salmonella uses to coordinate its virulence.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Treating drug-resistant TB contacts up to age 45 was modelled as cost-effective
A model of 189 countries found that offering preventive treatment to household contacts of drug-resistant tuberculosis up to age 45, rather than only under-15s, was cost-effective in 160 countries.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsForecasts and their record new
Nigeria's HPV programme is modelled to avert 1.82 million cervical cancers
Continuing to vaccinate Nigerian girls aged 9 to 14 is projected to avert 1.82 million cervical cancer cases to 2100, with 945,000 remaining in women already too old.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Tuberculosis vaccine VPM1002 is modelled as stronger against disease outside the lungs
A dynamic model of tuberculosis in India estimated the VPM1002 vaccine to be 42.9% effective against disease outside the lungs and 14.0% against lung disease, both intervals including no effect.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Sotagliflozin after worsening heart failure is modelled at $75,510 per QALY gained
A lifetime microsimulation of patients with type 2 diabetes after worsening heart failure put sotagliflozin at $75,510 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, at an assumed net cost of $434 a month.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
A blood protein score of cellular ageing predicted death in UK Biobank
A blood protein score of cellular ageing, built in UK Biobank, predicted death and later dementia, COPD, heart attack and stroke, and changed over 18 months with exercise.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsHealth systems and access confirms
Adult mortality is 26% higher for those whose fathers held lower-ranked jobs
A meta-analysis of 102 cohort studies covering about 8.5 million people in 24 countries found adult all-cause mortality 26% higher for those whose fathers held lower-ranked occupations.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsAI in medicine new
Language models identified overdose deaths from New York investigators' written reports
Reading the reports New York City death investigators write on each case, the better of two language models identified suspected overdose deaths with 92% sensitivity and 88% positive predictive value.
Peer-reviewed -
Data, models and systemsValue in health new
Modelled depression screening of KwaZulu-Natal sex workers averts HIV at $490 per QALY
A transmission model for KwaZulu-Natal found depression screening with behavioural treatment most cost-effective among female sex workers, at $350 per HIV infection averted and $490 per QALY gained.
Peer-reviewed
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Tomorrow's worldA changing climate new
More days above the WHO daily NO2 guideline are followed by faster cognitive decline
Among 12,235 English adults aged 50 and over, more days above the WHO daily NO2 guideline were followed by faster decline in memory and fluency, independent of annual mean exposure.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate refines
Wildfire smoke PM2.5 is associated with higher dementia incidence in older US adults
Each microgram per cubic metre of wildfire smoke PM2.5 was associated with a 2.9% increase in the incidence rate of dementia among 39.7 million US Medicare beneficiaries followed to 2019.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself refines
Immune gene HLA-DRB1*04 is commoner in centenarians, DRB1*01:01 in Alzheimer's patients
Fine-mapping of HLA class II immune genes in 6,053 people found DRB1*04 subtypes commoner in 443 cognitively healthy centenarians, and DRB1*01:01 commoner in the 2,391 Alzheimer's patients.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate refines
Summer heat in Italy raises deaths from nervous system and mental illness
Across 7,864 Italian municipalities over 20 summers, heat-attributable fractions were highest for nervous system diseases at 14.93% and mental and behavioural disorders at 14.47%.
Preprint · not peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance new
Older patients on a virtual ward reported fewer depressive symptoms than inpatients
Among 100 patients aged 70 and over, 72% of hospital inpatients screened positive for depressive symptoms as compared to 30% of those cared for on a virtual ward.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldInnovation in treatment new
Oral orforglipron is tested for cardiovascular safety against insulin in type 2 diabetes
A phase 3 trial randomised 2749 adults with type 2 diabetes and heart or kidney disease to oral orforglipron or insulin glargine, and followed them for a median two years.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldMedicine at a distance refines
Systolic pressure was 5.8 mmHg lower with apps and wearables after stroke
Across 29 studies in 8,389 stroke and transient ischaemic attack survivors, systolic blood pressure was 5.8 mmHg lower with mobile applications or wearables, though prediction intervals crossed the null.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldSlowing ageing itself refines
Proteomic organ clocks tracked 16-year mortality less closely than epigenetic age
Accelerated liver, immune and heart proteomic ageing carried hazard ratios of 1.38 to 1.43 per standard deviation for 16-year mortality, below those for epigenetic age and cognition.
Peer-reviewed -
Tomorrow's worldA changing climate new
Daily cancer deaths in Japan were 0.88% higher per 10 micrograms/m3 of PM2.5
A 10 microgram per cubic metre rise in PM2.5 was associated with 0.88% more cancer deaths in Japan, though the association did not survive adjustment for NO2 or SO2.
Peer-reviewed