COIOS
Power of data Item confirms peer-reviewed

Modelled measles scale-up in Kenya averts 879 deaths over ten years

A Markov model of measles vaccination in Kenya estimated that maintaining current funding would avert 213 deaths over ten years at $1,269 per DALY averted, while reaching 95% two-dose coverage would avert 879 deaths at $1,093 per DALY averted, at a very high cost to the health budget.

A Markov model taking a health system perspective compared two measles vaccination scenarios in Kenya against a base case over ten years, adding a new birth cohort each year. Maintaining current funding, with annual coverage gains of 0.3% and 2% for first and second dose plus supplementary campaigns, was estimated to avert 213 deaths at $1,269 per DALY averted, while reaching 95% coverage for both doses averted 879 deaths at $1,093 per DALY averted. The intensified scenario was assessed as having a very high budget impact relative to Kenyan health expenditure.

Why it is interesting: It sets the modelled mortality gain from closing measles coverage gaps against what it would take from a national health budget.

Source
PLOS Global Public Health, 22 September 2026
DOI
10.1371/journal.pgph.0006440
Type
Peer-reviewed article
Design
Markov cost-effectiveness and budget-impact model, health-system perspective, annual birth cohorts, 10-year horizon, Kenya
Verdict
Confirms prior evidence
Driver
Forecasts and their track record
Driver
Infectious disease and pandemics
Driver
Capacity, funding and care