Age-period-cohort models were fitted to registry incidence for breast, prostate, colorectal and lung cancer and melanoma, projected to 2040 to 2044, then applied to census population estimates weighted by generation- and sex-specific identification proportions from 2023 to 2024 survey data. At ages 55 to 59, projected five-year burden was 15 times higher among Millennials than the Silent Generation, 77,521 against 5,134 cases, with Millennials accounting for 68.4% of breast and 59.7% of colorectal cases in this population by 2040 to 2044. The authors attribute the difference primarily to the larger share of younger cohorts identifying as sexual or gender minorities.
Why it is interesting: A worked example of how much of a projected rise in burden can come from the denominator's composition rather than from incidence.