COIOS
Behavioural science Item refines preprint

Seven in ten US women stay on endocrine therapy in the first year, linked claims show

In 401,450 US women initiating adjuvant endocrine therapy for breast cancer, 69.9% had a medication possession ratio of at least 80% in the first year, with modelled behavioural attributes such as comfort following medication instructions weakly associated with adherence after adjustment.

A retrospective cohort linked longitudinal medical and pharmacy claims to modelled individual-level behavioural and consumer attributes, via privacy-preserving tokenisation, for 401,450 US women who began tamoxifen or an aromatase inhibitor after breast surgery between 2016 and 2025. Adherence, defined as a medication possession ratio of 80% or more over the first 365 days, was achieved by 280,595 women (69.9%). Behavioural predictors remained significant after adjustment for clinical and demographic factors but were modest in size, including comfort following medication instructions (aOR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.24) and proximity to a breast oncologist (aOR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04-1.32).

Why it is interesting: It sets a national first-year adherence figure for a therapy whose mortality benefit depends on five to ten years of daily use, and shows what a commercial behavioural-to-claims linkage can and cannot resolve.

Source
medRxiv, 26 September 2026
DOI
10.64898/2026.05.25.26353903
Type
Preprint
Design
Retrospective cohort, 401,450 US women with invasive breast cancer initiating oral endocrine therapy 2016-2025, claims linked to modelled behavioural scores
Verdict
Refines prior evidence
Driver
Adherence and persistence
Driver
Cancer
Driver
What linked data reveals