Temperature-attributable cardiovascular mortality was projected on a 0.25° grid of 12,411 cells across 37 European countries. National cardiovascular deaths for 2016-2023 were downscaled by population, with pooled 27-country relative risks applied as attributable fractions. Daily temperature came from five bias-corrected climate models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. At baseline, non-optimal temperature accounted for 168,586 cardiovascular deaths yearly, 31.4 per 100,000, cold outnumbering heat five to one. Under SSP5-8.5 this reached 62.4 per 100,000 by late century, heat-attributable rates rising 472%. Ageing added over 80% beyond warming alone; relative risks were borrowed from a pooled study, not estimated locally.
Why it is interesting: It separates the contribution of population ageing from that of warming itself. With age structure held at 2020 levels, cold-attributable rates decline over the century while heat-attributable rates rise.
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