A simulation model of opioid use disorder was calibrated to six Pennsylvania counties, two urban, two intermediate and two rural. A 30% increase in naloxone distribution was projected to reduce 2029 overdose deaths by 70% in Allegheny and 11% in Erie. Projected reductions from more buprenorphine were smaller, at 10% to 23%, except in Erie, where buprenorphine gave the larger reduction.
Why it is interesting: Responsiveness was associated with each county's past dispensing variability; these are projections, not observed experience.
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