COIOS
Emergent technology Item refines peer-reviewed

Three Holter ECG markers with age predicted 5-year mortality at AUROC 0.79 in Israel

A random forest combining atrial fibrillation burden, premature ventricular contraction burden and T-wave alternans with age reached an AUROC of 0.79 for five-year all-cause mortality in 54,395 people recorded at Israeli primary care centres.

Researchers analysed 81,362 Holter recordings from 54,395 individuals across 20 primary care centres in Israel, deriving atrial fibrillation burden, premature ventricular contraction burden and T-wave alternans and combining them with age in a random forest. Five-year discrimination was 0.75 for heart failure, 0.69 for ischaemic stroke and 0.79 for all-cause mortality, with the three markers adding up to 10% over age alone below age 75.

Why it is interesting: Tests whether routinely recorded single-lead ECG features add prognostic information beyond age in an unselected primary care population.

Source
Physiological Measurement, 18 September 2026
DOI
10.1088/1361-6579/aea9ec
Type
Peer-reviewed article
Design
Retrospective cohort: 81,362 Holter recordings from 54,395 people at 20 Israeli primary care centres; random forest predicting 5-year outcomes
Verdict
Refines prior evidence
Driver
AI in medicine