Researchers built a Markov state-transition model of chronic hepatitis B progression, comparing a hypothetical functional-cure regimen against indefinite nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy for a 50-year-old HBeAg-negative, non-cirrhotic, virally suppressed man. At a 30% cure rate and 0.1% annual post-cure hepatocellular carcinoma incidence, the regimen yielded 0.30 additional QALYs in the US and 0.57 in China. The one-time price thresholds were USD46,642 and USD13,008, rising with higher cure rates, younger patients and higher medical costs.
Why it is interesting: Sets a price ceiling by modelling for a regimen that does not yet exist, at USD46,642 for the US against USD13,008 for China.