COIOS
Weighing data and models Item refines preprint

Modelled excess maternal deaths of 68,489 in 2020-2023, with a wide uncertainty interval

Counterfactual models fitted to WHO/UN maternal mortality estimates for 2000-2019 put cumulative excess maternal deaths across 195 countries at 68,489 (95% UI 34,706-147,118) for 2020-2023, with no clear association with national service-disruption measures.

The authors projected pre-pandemic maternal mortality trajectories for 195 countries from WHO/UN MMEIG estimates for 2000-2019 and compared them with estimates for 2020-2023. Cumulative excess maternal deaths were 68,489 (95% UI 34,706-147,118), with detectable excess in 113 countries and the largest burdens in South-East Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean and Africa. In a self-selected subset of 39 countries, disruption to antenatal care, facility delivery and postnatal care was not clearly associated with the deviation in maternal mortality ratio.

Why it is interesting: Puts a figure on the departure of maternal deaths from pre-pandemic trajectories, and sets it against national service-disruption indicators that did not clearly explain it.

Source
medRxiv, 28 September 2026
DOI
10.64898/2026.06.30.26356947
Type
Preprint
Design
Counterfactual modelling of WHO/UN MMEIG maternal mortality estimates, 195 countries, 2000-2019 fitted and projected to 2020-2023; regression on service disruption in 39 countries (63 country-years)
Verdict
Refines prior evidence
Driver
Revisions and new sources
Driver
Infection and pandemics