COIOS
Behavioural science Item new preprint

Long-run mortality from tropical cyclones concentrates in socially vulnerable counties

Among high-vulnerability counties in Texas, tropical cyclone exposure was associated with elevated all-cause mortality persisting long after landfall, whereas the effect in lower-vulnerability counties was not statistically significant.

A panel study of 254 Texas counties over 50 years linked reconstructed tropical cyclone wind exposure to county-month all-cause mortality, stratified by social vulnerability. High-vulnerability counties showed a positive and significant mortality response to cyclone exposure; lower-vulnerability counties did not. The mortality burden from repeated cyclone exposure concentrated where physical hazard intensity overlapped with social vulnerability.

Why it is interesting: Demonstrates that disaster mortality depends on population capacity to recover, not exposure alone; a finding relevant to how societies prepare for and absorb climate shocks.

Source
Research Square, 2026-09-10
DOI
10.21203/rs.3.rs-10831452/v1
Type
Preprint
Design
County-month panel model, Texas 1968–2018, n=254 counties
Verdict
New finding
Driver
How much isolation and loneliness actually shorten lives