A Bayesian spatio-temporal model related 12.9 million deaths across Japan's 47 prefectures, 2010–2019, to typhoon wind exposure. Adults aged 70 and over had 2,426 cumulative excess deaths (95% credible interval 139 to 4,632). Their rise in the exposure week was largest in metropolitan prefectures with good healthcare access. Flood and landslide risk modified their mortality a week later. Under 70, the total of 781 was uncertain (−309 to 1,900); rises came two weeks later in poorer, landslide-prone areas. Exposure was prefecture-level wind speed, ages were split only at 70, and mortality displacement was not tested.
Why it is interesting: Disaster registers mainly count direct deaths, while this model points to many more delayed deaths among older people. Inland prefectures such as Tochigi and Gunma also ranked high, despite fewer typhoon weeks.
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