Researchers used HPVsim, an agent-based microsimulation calibrated to Nigerian sexual behaviour, HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence, to project cervical cancer cases to 2100 under adolescent, scaled-up and hypothetical infant vaccine delivery, varying screening coverage and schooling-linked equity assumptions. Continuing the current adolescent programme was projected to avert 1.82 million cases (IQR 1.65 to 1.90 million), a 53% reduction, with age-standardised incidence falling from 19.7 to 7.8 per 100,000. Some 945,000 residual cases fall in women already beyond target age, with screening scale-up to 70% averting a further 387,000.
Why it is interesting: The projection separates cases the programme averts from those in cohorts beyond target age, and sets out the coverage an infant schedule would need to match adolescent delivery.