COIOS
Healthcare today Item contradicts peer-reviewed

Rising despair did not track the midlife white US mortality increase

A Bayesian time-series analysis of US adults aged 45-54 from 1999 to 2015 found all-cause mortality rose among white adults, most among those with low education, but that the rise in despair was not associated with the rise in mortality.

The study modelled annual all-cause mortality and survey-measured despair among US adults aged 45-54 between 1999 and 2015. Mortality rose by 7.49 per 100,000 among midlife white adults overall and by 51.4 per 100,000 among those with low education, while despair prevalence rose by a similar amount among white and Black adults; the change in despair among white adults showed no association with the change in mortality (-0.12 per 100,000, 95% UI -0.54 to 0.29).

Why it is interesting: The educational gradient in midlife US mortality is reproduced, but the despair mechanism usually invoked to explain it is not supported.

Source
American Journal of Epidemiology, 21 September 2026
DOI
10.1093/aje/kwag235
Type
Peer-reviewed article
Design
Bayesian AR(1) time-series analysis of annual US mortality and survey despair prevalence, ages 45-54, 1999-2015
Verdict
Contradicts prior evidence
Driver
Inequalities in health and length of life