The model forecasts expected monthly deaths by age and sex, and was fitted to 22 years of New Zealand death counts. Applied from February 2020 to December 2025, it estimates relatively few excess deaths during the pandemic, although the estimates carry considerable uncertainty. By 2025 deaths had returned to the level the pre-pandemic trend would have given.
Why it is interesting: Most ways of estimating expected deaths become unreliable after a year or two; this one runs longer.
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