Twelve-hour emergency stays carry 1.95 times the hospitalisation risk over two years

Objectives:

To investigate the association between time spent in NHS Type 1 emergency departments (EDs, consultant led 24 hour services with full resuscitation facilities) and risk of leaving employment and hospitalisation after leaving the department alive up to two years after attendance. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked administrative data from the NHS Emergency Care Dataset, Hospital Episode Statistics, Census 2021, and mortality records. ED length of stay was categorised from under 2 hours to 12 hours or more. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to estimate the association between ED length of stay and subsequently leaving employment or being hospitalised over a two year follow-up period, adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical characteristics. Results Our study population comprised 3,347,008 individuals aged 25 to 64 who attended a Type 1 ED in England between April 2021 and March 2023. For leaving employment, adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) increased from 1.04 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.06) for stays of 2 to <4 hours to 1.21 (1.17 to 1.24) for 12 hours or more, compared with stays under 2 hours. A similar but more pronounced gradient was observed for post-discharge hospitalisation, with aHRs rising from 1.06 (1.04 to 1.07) at 2 to <4 hours to 1.95 (1.91 to 1.99) for stays of 12 hours or more. Conclusions Prolonged time spent in the ED is associated with poorer outcomes among working-age employees, including reduced labour market participation and increased hospital use. These findings suggest that long ED stays may have wider and longer-term implications beyond immediate clinical outcomes, including potentially for national labour markets and economic growth.