Excess deaths were estimated for 38 populations with reliable death registration over 2020-2025, against four different baselines. Cumulative excess over the six years was 0.92-2.49 million, as compared to 1.99-2.88 million for 2020-2023 alone. 33 of the 38 populations recorded a death deficit in 2024-2025, and baselines without age stratification biased the excess upwards.
Why it is interesting: The excess death total depends heavily on the baseline chosen, and reverses sign after 2023.
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