The study estimated excess deaths for 2020-2025 in 38 populations using four baselines: a 2017-2019 mean and three models incorporating long-term mortality rate trends and trend-of-trends since 2003. Cumulative 2020-2025 excess was 0.92-2.49 million, comprising 1.99-2.88 million in 2020-2023 and a deficit of 0.39-1.08 million in 2024-2025, with 33 of 38 countries in deficit in the latter period. Baselines lacking age stratification or assuming unchanged linear trends produced substantially higher excess estimates.
Why it is interesting: It quantifies how much of the published excess-death record is an artefact of baseline choice, and shows the sign of the estimate reverses in the post-pandemic years.