COIOS
Healthcare today Item confirms peer-reviewed

Modelled estimates put 10.6m new cancers at 65+ in 2022, rising 75% by 2036

A secondary analysis of GLOBOCAN 2022 and GBD 2021 estimates reports 10.6 million new cancer cases and 6.0 million cancer deaths among adults aged 65 and over in 2022, with the modelled case count projected to rise 75.5% by 2036 as populations age.

The authors re-analysed GLOBOCAN 2022 and GBD 2021 modelled estimates to describe cancer incidence and mortality in adults aged 65 and over by sex, region and Human Development Index. Older adults accounted for 10.6 million new cases and 6.0 million deaths in 2022, with incidence 1.7 times higher in men and more than three times higher in very-high-HDI than low-HDI regions, though mortality-to-incidence ratios were far lower in the former. The Bayesian projection gives a 75.5% increase in cases among older adults by 2036.

Why it is interesting: Quantifies how much of projected global cancer growth is arithmetic of population ageing rather than changing risk, though it adds no new data beyond the two modelled sources.

Source
Journal of geriatric oncology, 2026-09-13
DOI
10.1016/j.jgo.2026.103413
Type
Peer-reviewed article
Design
Descriptive secondary analysis of GLOBOCAN 2022 and GBD 2021 modelled estimates for adults aged 65+, trends 1990-2021 with projection to 2036
Verdict
Confirms prior evidence
Driver
Cancer