The authors adapted a Bayesian spatial integrated abundance model to estimate adult hepatitis C virus prevalence in 48 US states and the District of Columbia for 2017-2020, combining acute and chronic surveillance cases, HCV-related deaths, MarketScan claims, Medicaid diagnoses and Medicaid direct-acting antiviral treatment, anchored to a national estimate. Average prevalence was 1.32% (95% CrI 0.94-1.80%), or 3.33 million adults, ranging from 0.74% in North Dakota to 2.22% in Oklahoma. Ten states accounted for 56% of estimated infections, with higher prevalence in South Central states, Appalachia and the West.
Why it is interesting: It shows how far an unobserved disease burden can be reconstructed from mismatched administrative sources, and gives a 2017-2020 state-level baseline.