The study tracked nominal and inflation-adjusted retail prices of the most-sold cigarette brand in 195 countries across nine editions of the WHO Report on the Global Tobacco Epidemic, 2008-2024, and modelled how long countries would need to reach a 50% real price rise. Real prices grew at a least-squares annual rate of 2.9% (95% UI 2.8-3.0%), and one-third of countries recorded real prices at least 50% higher than ten years earlier. Over a fifth of nominal prices were unchanged between successive periods, rising to 40% in the WHO African region, and excise tax increases strongly predicted price increases.
Why it is interesting: It puts an empirical base under the WHO 3 by 35 price target, and counts how often real prices rose by 50% over ten years without a deliberate tax strategy.