The authors combined rapid-test-confirmed surveillance at Uvira's two cholera treatment facilities with repeated population surveys of care-seeking, vaccination, mobility and antibodies, and fitted an ensemble of transmission models to estimate what would have happened without the 2020 campaign. The campaign, reaching 66% of the population with at least one dose, was estimated to have averted 56% (95% CrI 34-81) of infections and deaths over three years, about 2,350 facility-attended cases and 44 deaths. Full coverage of the eligible population would have averted 64% (43-87), in a preprint.
Why it is interesting: One of few population-level estimates of oral cholera vaccine impact in an endemic African city, and it bounds what vaccination alone achieves where transmission is intense.