COIOS
Healthcare today Item refines peer-reviewed

Wildfire smoke accounted for 1.9% of deaths across ten countries and territories

A causal analysis of 47.8 million deaths in 1366 communities across ten countries and territories attributed 906 869 deaths to landscape fire PM2·5, with instrumental-variable estimates a median 56% higher than conventional association estimates.

Daily mortality records from 1366 communities in ten countries and territories over 2000-19 were linked to modelled landscape fire PM2·5, using instrumental variable models alongside conventional time-series estimates. Each 1 µg/m³ rise in the 2-day mean of landscape fire PM2·5 was associated with a 0·60% (95% CI 0·19-1·00) increase in mortality, giving 906 869 attributable deaths, or 1·90% of the total. Landscape fire smoke was 19·0% of ambient PM2·5 mass but 30·6% of PM2·5-attributable deaths.

Why it is interesting: The instrumental-variable approach raises the attributable burden by more than half over conventional estimates, bearing directly on how smoke mortality is attributed.

Source
The Lancet. Planetary health, 2026-09-16
DOI
10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101506
Type
Peer-reviewed article
Design
Multi-country time-series with instrumental-variable estimation, 1366 communities in ten countries and territories, 47.8 million deaths, 2000-19
Verdict
Refines prior evidence
Driver
Environment: air, heat, cold