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Genetic score adds little to age and sex in predicting osteoporosis in Japan

In 8,711 Japanese adults, a bone density genetic score added little to age and sex, though the lowest-scoring fifth had 1.42 times the osteoporosis incidence of the middle fifth.

A polygenic score for heel ultrasound bone density was built in up to 10,794 Tohoku Medical Megabank participants and validated in 8,711 others. Adding the score to age and sex improved discrimination only modestly. Over a mean 3.5 years, the lowest-scoring fifth had 1.42 times the osteoporosis incidence of the middle fifth, and the highest-scoring fifth 0.70 times.

Why it is interesting: Scores built in Japanese data separate risk groups, but add little to what age and sex already give.

Source
Journal of Human Genetics, 9 September 2026
Paper
Osteoporosis genetic risk prediction using bone mineral density polygenic scores in Japanese: TMM CommCohort study
Authors
Otsuka-Yamasaki Y, Sutoh Y, Hachiya T, Nakao M, Minabe S, Komaki S et al.
DOI
10.1038/s10038-026-01498-3
Type
Peer-reviewed article
Design
GWAS with validation and prospective follow-up, n=10,794 and n=8711 validation, mean 3.5 years
Verdict
Refines prior evidence
Driver
Frailty and multimorbidity
Driver
What linked data reveals
Free full text
Free copy in a repository (author's accepted manuscript)

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