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Item refines Preprint · not peer-reviewed Added

Polygenic scores add most to prediction where clinical risk is already low

Across 150 diseases in 900,000 UK Biobank and FinnGen participants, polygenic scores added most in metabolic, cardiovascular, autoimmune and neurological disease, and added little for genitourinary and respiratory conditions.

Models combining clinical history with polygenic scores were developed and validated for 150 diseases and all-cause mortality in 900,000 UK Biobank and FinnGen participants. Genetic information added most in metabolic, cardiovascular, autoimmune and neurological disease, with larger gains at lower clinical risk. For atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, the score expanded the high-risk group by 40%, and those reclassified had 4.9 times the incidence of those remaining low-risk.

Why it is interesting: Genetic scores add least where clinical records already identify risk, and most where they do not.

Source
medRxiv, 27 September 2026
Paper
Clinical history shapes the predictive value of polygenic risk
Authors
Usoltsev D, Molotkov I, Kolosov N, Reeve MP, Ukhatov A, FinnGen et al.
DOI
10.64898/2026.09.25.26364029
Type
Preprint
Design
Prediction model development and validation across 150 diseases and all-cause mortality, 900,000 participants, UK Biobank and FinnGen, with external validation in three biobanks
Verdict
Refines prior evidence
Driver
AI in medicine
Driver
What linked data reveals
Attention
1 citation (Crossref) · as of 2026-10-23

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